Australia 0–0 Paraguay: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Quick Answer
Australia 0–0 Paraguay — full time, 2026 World Cup Group D. Our pre-match call (Under 2.5 goals) missed.
Live model · simulation updated
Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — Australia
Market Edges — Paraguay
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · Australia vs Paraguay
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | ||||
| Mathew Leckie | — | 14 | — | |
| Nestory Irankunda | — | 6 | — | |
| Paraguay | ||||
| Miguel Almiron | ✓ | 24 | — | |
| Antonio Sanabria | — | 16 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group D · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | +8991 | 1.1% | 100% |
| Australia | 0.3% | 100% | |
| Paraguay | 0.1% | 100% | |
| Türkiye | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
Tony Popovic's Socceroos play a compact 4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1 built on defensive discipline and counter-attacking pace. Consistently qualify but rarely advance past R16. The European-based contingent (Souttar, Irankunda) adds quality. Totals Bias: UNDER.
Key Scorers
Mathew Leckie · 14g
Melbourne City…
Nestory Irankunda · 6g
Bayern Munich (loan)…
Tete Yengi · 5g
Ipswich Town…
Key Creators
- Jackson Irvine · Central CM
- Nestory Irankunda · Right wing
- Ajdin Hrustic · No. 10
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Ajdin Hrustic
- Free Kicks
- Ajdin Hrustic
- Corners
- Jackson Irvine / Ajdin Hrustic (delivery) / Harry Souttar (target)
Aerial Threats
- Tete Yengi — Ipswich Town striker…
- Harry Souttar — Leicester CB…
Tactical Notes
Australia will fight for every point in Group D with USA, Paraguay, and Türkiye. The Socceroos reached the R16 in 2022 (lost to Argentina 2-1) and have genuine tournament know-how. Key limitation: squad depth and individual quality compared to top teams. Group D is the weakest in the tournament on paper — Australia could pull a result on a given day. Market edge: Australia to advance from group at long odds is a speculative value play. The group is soft enough for them to nick a result. MD1 RESULT (Jun 13, vs Türkiye, 2-0 win): a statement opener at BC Place — Nestory Irankunda (27') and Connor Metcalfe (75') with the goals and a clean sheet from a disciplined 5-4-1 block. Outworked a more-fancied side and punished a giveaway for the second. Three points and +2 GD is a big leg-up in Group D.
Qual
7-3-4
GF
24
GA
16
Playing Style
Paraguay under Gustavo Alfaro are compact, physical, and dangerous from dead balls — exactly the formula that punches above weight at World Cups. Miguel Almiron (Atlanta United) is the engine: pressing, passing, scoring from distance. Antonio Sanabria (Cremonese) is the old-school No. 9 who wins aerial duels and holds the line. Alfaro had Ecuador over-achieving at WC 2022 — he knows exactly how to get a mid-tier CONMEBOL side to perform. Group D with USA and Australia is wide open. Paraguay are legitimate second-place contenders and a push to the Round of 16. Totals: UNDER — Alfaro's systems are built to control and grind. Knockout run: Knocked Germany out on penalties (1-1) — the run's biggest scalp — and now draw France as a heavy underdog built on structure, not sustained threat.
Key Scorers
Miguel Almiron · 24g
Atlanta United (returned from Newcastle in 2025)…
Antonio Sanabria · 16g
Cremonese…
Ramón Sosa · 10g
Nottingham Forest…
Key Creators
- Miguel Almiron · Central midfielder / Second striker
- Antonio Sanabria · Centre forward
- Julio Enciso · Right winger / No. 10
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Miguel Almiron
- Free Kicks
- Miguel Almiron / Julio Enciso
- Corners
- Julio Enciso (delivery) / Antonio Sanabria, Gustavo Gómez (aerial targets)
Aerial Threats
- Antonio Sanabria — 6'1"…
- Gustavo Gómez — Palmeiras…
Tactical Notes
Alfaro turned Ecuador into dark horses at WC 2022 by doing exactly this: compact shape, fast transitions, clinical finishing, set piece goals. Paraguay are better technically than that Ecuador side. Almiron at 30 is the best player Alfaro has ever had. Group D — USA have home support but are fallible in defense, Australia are direct and physical. Paraguay should win one game and draw another. The over/under on their games is one of the clearest bets: Alfaro teams play 1-0, 1-1, 2-1. Never 3-2 or 4-3.
Qual
7-4-3
GF
20
GA
14
Who is favored in Australia vs Paraguay?
Australia and Paraguay meet in Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-25 at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara. Our simulation gives Australia a clear edge — a 15-point win probability gap separating these sides. Australia enters with a 100% advancement probability in our model vs Paraguay at 100%. This shapes up as a tighter, lower-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals is the lean based on defensive profiles and group stage conservative tactics. Top value play: Under 2.5 goals.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
Australia’s Other Matches
Other Group D Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
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