Starting Lineups ▾
Korea Republic (4-2-3-1)
- 1. Kim Seung-gyu
- 2. Seol Young-woo
- 3. Kim Min-jae
- 4. Lee Han-beom
- 5. Lee Gi-hyuk
- 6. Lee Tae-seok
- 7. Hwang In-beom
- 8. Lee Kang-in
- 9. Paik Seung-ho
- 10. Lee Jae-sung
- 11. Son Heung-min
Czechia (3-5-2)
- 1. Matej Kovar
- 2. Vladimir Coufal
- 3. Tomas Holes
- 4. David Doudera
- 5. Ladislav Krejci
- 6. Jaroslav Zeleny
- 7. Tomas Soucek
- 8. Michal Sadilek
- 9. Pavel Sulc
- 10. Adam Hlozek
- 11. Patrik Schick
Korea Republic 2–1 Czechia: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Quick Answer
Korea Republic 2–1 Czechia — full time, 2026 World Cup Group A. Goals: Krejci 59', In-beom 67', Hyeon-gyu 80'. Our pre-match call (Under 2.5 goals) missed.
Live model · simulation updated
Environment
Estadio Akron sits at ~1,566m. With neither side acclimatized to the thin air, the model trims both teams’ goal expectation and widens the draw band over the closing stages.
Model adjustment per The 7 Oracles methodology.
Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — Korea Republic
Market Edges — Czechia
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · Korea Republic vs Czechia
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korea Republic | ||||
| Son Heung-min | ✓ | 48 | 0% | |
| Hwang In-beom | — | 7 | — | |
| Czechia | ||||
| Patrik Schick | ✓ | 26 | 0% | |
| Adam Hlozek | — | 12 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group A · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | +6567 | 1.5% | 100% |
| South Africa | <0.1% | 100% | |
| Czechia | <0.1% | 0% | |
| Korea Republic | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
Hong Myung-bo's Korea play a technical 4-3-3 built around Son Heung-min's genius. 11th consecutive World Cup — remarkable consistency for Asian football. Son is the biggest star in Asian football. Lee Kang-in at PSG adds a second creative dimension. Organized defensively, dangerous on transitions. Totals: NEUTRAL.
Key Scorers
Son Heung-min · 48g
LAFC (ex-Tottenham captain)…
Hwang In-beom · 7g
Feyenoord…
Oh Hyeon-gyu · 5g
Celtic (on loan)…
Key Creators
- Son Heung-min · Left wing / Second striker
- Lee Kang-in · No. 10 / Right wing
- Hwang In-beom · Central CM — late-arriving goal threat
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Son Heung-min
- Free Kicks
- Son Heung-min
- Corners
- Lee Kang-in (delivery) / Kim Min-jae (target)
Aerial Threats
- Kim Min-jae — Bayern Munich CB…
- Cho Gue-sung — Scored 2 headers vs…
Tactical Notes
4-2-3-1 system under Hong Myung-bo. Won MD1 vs Czechia 2-1 coming from behind — Hwang In-beom equalized (67') and Oh Hyeon-gyu scored the winner off the bench (80'). Son Heung-min was subbed off at 69' having had 6 shots without scoring — his involvement was high but the finish didn't fall. Oh Hyeon-gyu is now confirmed as a live super-sub option. Kim Min-jae (Bayern Munich CB) is the defensive anchor. Lee Gi-hyuk picked up a yellow card in 90'+6' — one caution, not yet suspended. MD2 vs Mexico on June 18 is the group's pivotal match — Korea must keep Son healthy and match Mexico's physicality in the final third.
Qual
8-3-3
GF
26
GA
14
Playing Style
Czechia qualified via UEFA Playoff D, beating Denmark 2-2 (3-1 pens). Patrik Schick (Bayer Leverkusen) is their talisman — a world-class striker when fit, and the PK taker. Adam Hlozek (Hoffenheim) provides a younger, pacier option beside him. Czech football is organized and direct — counter-attacking with discipline. Group A draw — Mexico, Korea Republic, South Africa — gives them a genuine shot at advancement. Mexico are the group favorites but South Africa and Korea are both beatable. Totals: UNDER — Czech sides are structurally solid and don't concede cheaply.
Key Scorers
Patrik Schick · 26g
Bayer Leverkusen…
Adam Hlozek · 12g
Hoffenheim (on loan from Leverkusen)…
Tomas Soucek · 11g
West Ham…
Key Creators
- Patrik Schick · Striker
- Tomas Soucek · Central midfielder
- Adam Hlozek ·
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Patrik Schick
- Free Kicks
- Patrik Schick / Tomas Holes
- Corners
- Tomas Holes (delivery) / Tomas Soucek, Ladislav Krejci (targets — Krejci scored from a header vs Korea MD1)
Aerial Threats
- Tomas Soucek — 6'4"…
- David Zima — Central defender…
Tactical Notes
Lost MD1 to Korea Republic 1-2 in Guadalajara. Ladislav Krejci (CB) scored from a header at 59' — set pieces are real. Patrik Schick was subbed off at 63' (tactical substitution; watch for fitness updates heading into MD2). All three Czech subs came at once (63'): Schick, Sadilek, and Sulc all came off, signaling either halftime adjustments or fatigue management. Czechia MUST beat South Africa in MD2 (June 18) to stay alive — and they get a major gift: Sphephelo Sithole AND Themba Zwane are both suspended for South Africa after red cards in MD1 vs Mexico. Zwane was South Africa's primary creator. Tomas Soucek and the set-piece game should be decisive.
Qual
7-2-5
GF
20
GA
18
Who is favored in Korea Republic vs Czechia?
Korea Republic and Czechia meet in Group A at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-11 at Estadio Akron, Guadalajara. Our simulation gives Korea Republic a clear edge — a 28-point win probability gap separating these sides. Korea Republic enters with a 0% advancement probability in our model vs Czechia at 0%. This shapes up as a tighter, lower-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals is the lean based on defensive profiles and group stage conservative tactics. Top value play: Under 2.5 goals.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
Korea Republic’s Other Matches
Czechia’s Other Matches
Other Group A Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
Run the Numbers
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