Starting Lineups ▾
Canada (4-4-2)
- 1. Maxime Crepeau
- 2. Alistair Johnston
- 3. Luc de Fougerolles
- 4. Derek Cornelius
- 5. Richie Laryea
- 6. Tajon Buchanan
- 7. Ismael Kone
- 8. Stephen Eustaquio
- 9. Liam Millar
- 10. Jonathan David
- 11. Tani Oluwaseyi
Bosnia & Herzegovina (4-3-3)
- 1. Nikola Vasilj
- 2. Amar Dedic
- 3. Nikola Katic
- 4. Tarik Muharemovic
- 5. Sead Kolasinac
- 6. Esmir Bajraktarevic
- 7. Ivan Basic
- 8. Benjamin Tahirovic
- 9. Amar Memic
- 10. Ermedin Demirovic
- 11. Jovo Lukic
Canada 1–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · BMO Field, Toronto
Quick Answer
Canada 1–1 Bosnia & Herzegovina — full time, 2026 World Cup Group B. Goals: Lukic 21', Larin 78'. Our pre-match call (Canada to win) missed.
Live model · simulation updated
Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — Canada
Market Edges — Bosnia & Herzegovina
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Tournament path resolves once this qualifier is confirmed.
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | ||||
| Jonathan David | ✓ | 30 | 0.5% | |
| Cyle Larin | — | 30 | — | |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | ||||
| Ermedin Demirovic | — | 14 | — | |
| Jovo Lukic | — | 7 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group B · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | +5782 | 1.7% | 100% |
| Canada | 0.4% | 100% | |
| Bosnia | <0.1% | 100% | |
| Qatar | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
Canada field arguably their strongest squad ever as co-hosts. Jesse Marsch plays a direct 4-4-2 / 4-3-3 built on pressing intensity. Alphonso Davies is world-class at LB. Jonathan David is one of the most clinical strikers in Europe, with 30-goal seasons behind him. Home crowd advantage in Toronto and Vancouver is massive. Totals Bias: NEUTRAL. Knockout run: Reached the Round of 16 by beating South Africa 1-0; now face Morocco in Houston. Jonathan David is the goal threat.
Key Scorers
Jonathan David · 30g
Juventus…
Cyle Larin · 30g
Southampton…
Alphonso Davies · 15g
Bayern Munich…
Key Creators
- Alphonso Davies · Left back / Left wing
- Jonathan David · Striker
- Stephen Eustáquio · Central CM
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Jonathan David
- Free Kicks
- Jonathan David
- Corners
- Stephen Eustáquio / Alphonso Davies (delivery) / Cyle Larin (target)
Aerial Threats
- Cyle Larin — Southampton…
- Moïse Bombito — OGC Nice CB…
Tactical Notes
Direct 4-4-2 / 4-3-3 under Jesse Marsch. Opened MD1 with a 1-1 home draw vs Bosnia & Herzegovina at BMO Field — Canada's first-ever World Cup point after losing all seven prior matches across 1986 and 2022. Captain Alphonso Davies missed the opener with a hamstring strain and Moise Bombito (broken leg) was not ready; Jonathan David was quiet and Canada looked blunt until Cyle Larin came off the bench and equalized at 78' (two minutes after entering) — his 31st international goal, set up by a Promise David give-and-go. Alistair Johnston was booked early (11'). The point keeps Canada alive but they need a win in MD2 vs Qatar (June 18) to control the group — and they badly want Davies fit. Toronto's home crowd is a real edge the model only partly captures.
Qual
8-3-3
GF
28
GA
14
Playing Style
Bosnia & Herzegovina qualified via UEFA Playoff A, beating Italy 1-1 then 4-1 on penalties in a stunning result. This is Edin Dzeko's final World Cup — the all-time leading scorer for his country now gets his stage. Ermedin Demirovic (VfB Stuttgart) provides a younger, more dynamic strike partner. Bosnia are a counter-punching team: defend deep, exploit space on transitions, and rely on individual quality. Group B — Canada, Switzerland, Qatar — is one of the most accessible in the draw. Qatar are there to be beaten; Switzerland and Canada are beatable. Totals: UNDER — Bosnia defend well and rely on individual moments.
Key Scorers
Ermedin Demirovic · 14g
VfB Stuttgart…
Jovo Lukic · 7g
Zrinjski Mostar forward who headed Bosnia in front at 21' vs Canada — off a Sead Kolasinac flick from a corner — for the opener an…
Edin Dzeko · 6g
Schalke 04…
Key Creators
- Edin Dzeko · Striker
- Ermedin Demirovic · Second striker
- Amir Hadžiahmetović · Defensive midfielder
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Edin Dzeko
- Free Kicks
- Edin Dzeko / Benjamin Tahirović
- Corners
- Edin Dzeko / Nikola Katić (delivery and target)
Aerial Threats
- Edin Dzeko — 6'2", dominant in the air…
- Nikola Katić — Centre back…
Tactical Notes
Counter-punching 4-3-3 under Sergej Barbarez. Earned a hugely creditable 1-1 draw away at co-hosts Canada in MD1 — Jovo Lukic headed them in front at 21' off a Sead Kolasinac corner flick before Cyle Larin equalized late (78'). Bosnia defended deep, ceded territory, and leaned on their set-piece quality and Nikola Vasilj's goalkeeping — exactly their template. Edin Dzeko was managed off the bench at 40; Demirovic led the line. One point on the board, with the most accessible fixture (Qatar) and a beatable Switzerland still to come — a point at Canada keeps the group very much alive. Nikola Katic was booked late (90+3).
Qual
7-2-5
GF
21
GA
17
Who is favored in Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
Canada and Bosnia & Herzegovina meet in Group B at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-12 at BMO Field, Toronto. Our simulation gives Canada a clear edge — a 42-point win probability gap separating these sides. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Both Teams to Score is also in play — both sides have real scoring threats that should test the opposing defense. Top value play: Canada to win.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
Canada’s Other Matches
Bosnia & Herzegovina’s Other Matches
Other Group B Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
Run the Numbers
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