Starting Lineups ▾
Brazil (4-3-3)
- 1. Alisson
- 2. Roger Ibañez
- 3. Marquinhos
- 4. Gabriel Magalhães
- 5. Douglas Santos
- 6. Casemiro
- 7. Bruno Guimarães
- 8. Lucas Paquetá
- 9. Raphinha
- 10. Igor Thiago
- 11. Vinícius Jr
Morocco (4-3-3)
- 1. Yassine Bounou
- 2. Achraf Hakimi
- 3. Issa Diop
- 4. Chadi Riad
- 5. Noussair Mazraoui
- 6. Ayyoub Bouaddi
- 7. Azzedine Ounahi
- 8. Neil El Aynaoui
- 9. Brahim Díaz
- 10. Ismael Saibari
- 11. Bilal El Khannouss
Brazil 1–1 Morocco: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Quick Answer
Brazil 1–1 Morocco — full time, 2026 World Cup Group C. Goals: Saibari 21', Jr 32'. Our pre-match call (Both teams to score) hit.
Live model · simulation updated
Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — Brazil
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · Brazil vs Morocco
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | ||||
| Vinícius Jr | ✓ | 24 | 7.6% | |
| Matheus Cunha | — | 12 | — | |
| Morocco | ||||
| Ayoub El Kaabi | — | 18 | 0.7% | |
| Soufiane Rahimi | — | 8 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group C · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | +1308 | 7.1% | 100% |
| Morocco | +4662 | 2.1% | 100% |
| Haiti | <0.1% | 0% | |
| Scotland | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
Brazil 2026 is built around pace and pressing under Carlo Ancelotti — appointed May 2025, the first foreign manager in Brazil's history. Ancelotti runs the same flexible 4-4-2/4-3-3 system he used at Real Madrid, with Vinícius Jr as the focal point. The squad depth is unmatched in the draw. Ancelotti's biggest contribution: finally getting the best players on the pitch together and trusting the attack. Knockout run: Beat Japan 2-1 and face Norway; the model's outright-value side of the bracket, priced well under its simulated champion odds. Vinícius Jr. the danger.
Key Scorers
Vinícius Jr · 24g
Real Madrid…
Matheus Cunha · 12g
Manchester United…
Raphinha · 15g
Barcelona…
Key Creators
- Vinícius Jr · Left wing
- Lucas Paquetá · No. 10
- Raphinha · Right wing
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Vinícius Jr
- Free Kicks
- Raphinha
- Corners
- Lucas Paquetá / Raphinha
Aerial Threats
- Marquinhos — PSG captain…
- Gabriel Magalhães — Arsenal CB…
Tactical Notes
Brazil have the most complete squad in the tournament and now have the manager to match. Ancelotti's appointment ended Brazil's chronic coaching instability. His system — flexible, attack-minded, built around his best players — suits this squad perfectly. Casemiro (34) was recalled by Ancelotti and starts as the deep anchor of the double pivot alongside Bruno Guimarães, with Fabinho and Danilo the depth/rotation legs behind them. Group stage vs. Morocco, Scotland, Haiti is a free pass to the R16. The real test is the QF onward. Brazil at +800 has drifted slightly from their early line but the squad quality hasn't changed. MD1 update (June 13): Brazil 1-1 Morocco at MetLife. Igor Thiago started as the No. 9 (Matheus Cunha and Endrick both began on the bench, Neymar too); the front line was Raphinha, Igor Thiago and Vinícius Jr. Set-piece roles held — Vinícius (PK), Raphinha (FK), Paquetá/Raphinha (corners) all started, though no penalty was awarded. Vinícius equalised (32', assisted by Raphinha) after Saibari's opener. Casemiro (37') and Roger Ibañez (43') were booked and both came off at half-time for Fabinho and Danilo. Injury absentees from the finals: Rodrygo (knee), Éder Militão (thigh) and Willian Estêvão (hamstring); Wesley (adductor) withdrew pre-tournament.
Qual
12-2-4
GF
42
GA
14
Playing Style
Morocco recently appointed Mohamed Ouahbi as head coach, replacing Walid Regragui (the 2022 WC semifinal hero). The coaching change 3 months before the tournament is a wildcard — but the squad is deep with European-based talent. Defensively organized, dangerous on transitions and set pieces. Hakimi is world-class at RB. The 2022 semifinal run was no fluke. Totals Bias: UNDER. Knockout run: Edged the Netherlands on penalties (1-1) to reach the Round of 16 against Canada. Ayoub El Kaabi leads the line, Brahim Díaz on penalties.
Key Scorers
Ayoub El Kaabi · 18g
Olympiacos…
Soufiane Rahimi · 8g
Al-Ain…
Brahim Díaz · 6g
Real Madrid…
Key Creators
- Achraf Hakimi · Right back / Wing back
- Bilal El Khannouss · No. 10 / Right wing
- Azzedine Ounahi · Central CM
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Brahim Díaz
- Free Kicks
- Achraf Hakimi / Azzedine Ounahi
- Corners
- Achraf Hakimi (delivery) / Issa Diop, Chadi Riad (targets). MD1 vs Brazil: El Kaabi benched, Saibari led the line — confirm the XI before leaning on El Kaabi as the aerial target.
Aerial Threats
- Ayoub El Kaabi — 2024 AFCON top scorer…
- Issa Diop — Fulham…
Tactical Notes
Morocco's 2022 semi-final run changed how the world views African football. The key question for 2026 is whether the coaching change from Regragui to Ouahbi disrupts the system. Ouahbi inherits a talented squad but has limited time to implement his ideas. Hakimi at RB is world-class. A late double injury blow reshaped the squad: first-choice CB Nayef Aguerd (groin surgery) and winger Abde Ezzalzouli (knee) were both ruled out and replaced on the FIFA roster on June 10 — so the back line is now Chadi Riad alongside Issa Diop. Bilal El Khannouss provides the creative gear in midfield. Group C with Brazil, Scotland, and Haiti — Morocco vs. Brazil is the group match of the tournament. Scotland and Haiti are both winnable. Market edge: Morocco to advance from Group C is near-certain. MD1 update (June 13): Brazil 1-1 Morocco at MetLife. Ouahbi sprang a surprise XI — Ismael Saibari started as the central striker and chipped Alisson for the opener (21'), with Ayoub El Kaabi and Soufiane Rahimi both on the bench. Brahim Díaz (PK) and Hakimi (corner/FK delivery) kept their set-piece roles; no penalty was awarded. Vinícius Jr equalised (32'). Injuries reshaped the squad pre-tournament: Nayef Aguerd (groin) and Abde Ezzalzouli (knee) are both out of the finals.
Qual
10-2-4
GF
32
GA
10
Who is favored in Brazil vs Morocco?
Brazil and Morocco meet in Group C at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-13 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. Our simulation gives Brazil a clear edge — a 31-point win probability gap separating these sides. Brazil enters with a 100% advancement probability in our model vs Morocco at 100%. This shapes up as a tighter, lower-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals is the lean based on defensive profiles and group stage conservative tactics. Both Teams to Score is also in play — both sides have real scoring threats that should test the opposing defense. Top value play: Both teams to score.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
Brazil’s Other Matches
Other Group C Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
Run the Numbers
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