NFL WEEK 1

Model vs. Kalshi on all 16 openers

Week 1 markets live now

FANTASY DRAFT

Free draft desk inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor

8 tools · no account

NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

SILVER EDGE

Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

KalshiMacro & economics

Will above 20000 jobs be added in August 2026?

64c

YES · 64% implied

11K

contracts 24h

12K

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report shows total non-farm payroll employment increased by more than 20,000 in August 2026.

  • Initial release vs. later revisionsBLS revises payroll figures in subsequent months; the rules don't specify which print (first release or a revision) is used, creating ambiguity about which number triggers settlement.
  • Strict 'above' threshold — 20,000 excludedThe rule says 'above 20000,' meaning an exact print of +20,000 resolves NO; a trader assuming '20,000 or more' would be caught off-guard.
  • August 2026 report release timingThe August 2026 employment data is typically released in early September 2026, so the contract may remain open well past August month-end before settling.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXPAYROLLS settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

Related Macro & economics Markets

Trade this market on Kalshi

Buy YES or NO directly on Kalshi

Trade on Kalshi →

Compare this market on Polymarket

See if there's a price discrepancy worth trading

Compare on Polymarket →

Get The 7 Oracles' take on this market — subscribe free

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.