Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the federal funds rate upper bound published on the Fed's official website is strictly greater than 3.75% after the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting.

• Strict "greater than" threshold, not ≥ — An upper bound of exactly 3.75% resolves NO — the rate must exceed 3.75%, so a hold at 3.75% is a losing position for YES holders.
• Sep 16, 2026 is not a scheduled FOMC date — FOMC meetings are typically two-day events; Sep 16, 2026 falls on a Wednesday, which could be the second day of a meeting, but if the Fed does not hold a meeting on or immediately before that date, resolution criteria and timing become ambiguous.
• Official Fed website as sole data source — Only the rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website counts — any discrepancy between that and CME, Bloomberg, or other feeds is irrelevant, and resolution waits on that specific publication.

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