Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2026?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth for Q3 2026 prints strictly above 3.0%.

• Advance Estimate only — revisions excluded — Only the first (Advance) release triggers resolution; if that print is ≤3.0% but later revised above 3.0% in the Second or Third Estimate, the contract still resolves NO.
• Strictly greater than 3.0%, not at or above — A print of exactly 3.0% resolves NO, so traders long YES need a read of at least 3.1% (or whatever the BEA's reported decimal confirms exceeds 3.0).
• Annualized rate, not quarter-over-quarter — The BEA Advance Estimate reports a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), which is ~4× the raw quarterly change, so traders must not confuse the two metrics when forming expectations.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXGDP settlement rules →