Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate, as published on the Fed's official website, is strictly greater than 4.00% immediately following the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting.

• Strict ">" not "≥": 4.00% resolves NO — The rule uses "greater than 4.00%," so if the upper bound lands exactly at 4.00% the contract resolves NO, not YES.
• Sep 16 may not be an FOMC meeting date — FOMC meetings are scheduled well in advance and Sep 16, 2026 may not align with an actual meeting date; if no meeting occurs on that date, resolution criteria could be unmet or the contract voided/delayed.
• Rate published on Fed website, not FOMC statement — The governing data source is specifically the Federal Reserve's official website publication, so any discrepancy or delay between the FOMC announcement and the website posting is what controls settlement.
• "Following" the meeting — post-meeting rate only — Only the rate in effect after the Sep 16 meeting counts; any rate prevailing before that meeting — even if above 4.00% — is irrelevant to resolution.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXFED settlement rules →