What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the median projected federal funds rate for year-end 2026 in the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) released at the settlement-date FOMC meeting is strictly above the threshold.

• Strict 'above' — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — The rule says 'above' the threshold, so a median projection exactly equal to the threshold is insufficient for YES resolution.
• Median, not mean or modal dot — The dot plot shows individual projections; resolution depends on the median of those dots, which can differ meaningfully from the most-cited or most-clustered value.
• Single SEP release — no revision mechanism — The Summary of Economic Projections is published once per qualifying FOMC meeting; there is no 'revised print,' so the dot released on the settlement date is final regardless of subsequent economic data.
• No SEP published ⇒ ALL twelve strikes resolve NO, not void — The contract's own 6/20/2026 clarification: if the Fed publishes no Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting, or an SEP with no median year-end-2026 federal funds projection, every market in the ladder resolves to No. That is not a void or a refund — every YES holder at every strike loses simultaneously. It also means the ladder is NOT exhaustive: P(no SEP) sits as a uniform haircut across all twelve strikes, so the CDF differences do not sum to 1 and anything that renormalises them to 1 is silently asserting the Fed will publish.

These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXDOTPLOT settlement rules →