NFL WEEK 1

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KalshiMacro & economics

Will above -25000 jobs be added in August 2026?

84c

YES · 84% implied

3K

contracts 24h

6K

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BLS Monthly Employment Situation Report shows total non-farm payroll employment change for August 2026 is strictly greater than -25,000 (i.e., job losses are fewer than 25,000, or any positive number of jobs are added).

  • Threshold is -25,000, not zeroThe contract resolves YES even in a significantly negative jobs month — any print above -25,000 (e.g., -1,000 or +100,000) counts as YES, so a 'bad' jobs report can still be a winning position.
  • Initial release vs. later BLS revisionsThe rules say 'as reported by' the BLS but don't specify which print (advance, first revision, or second revision), so traders must track whether the contract settles on the first release or a subsequent revised figure.
  • Strict inequality — exactly -25,000 resolves NOThe rule uses 'above -25,000,' meaning a print of exactly -25,000 does NOT resolve YES, only values strictly greater than -25,000 do.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXPAYROLLS settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

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