Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth for Q4 2026 exceeds 3.5%.

• Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — The contract locks in the first (Advance) print; subsequent Second and Third Estimates, which can move the number materially, have no bearing on resolution even if they cross the 3.5% threshold in either direction.
• Strictly greater than 3.5%, not ≥ — A print of exactly 3.5% resolves NO, so traders holding positions near that threshold face a hard boundary with no rounding benefit.
• Annualized rate, not quarterly growth — The SAAR figure is roughly 4× the raw quarterly change, so confusing the two metrics would wildly misread whether the threshold is met.
• Q4 2026 Advance release timing risk — The BEA typically releases the Q4 Advance Estimate in late January of the following year, so settlement won't occur until ~January 2027, and any government shutdown or data-delay could postpone resolution.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXGDP settlement rules →