Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth for Q3 2026 exceeds 4.0%.

• Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — Only the first BEA print (Advance Estimate) counts; subsequent Second, Third, or annual revision figures — even if they move the number above or below 4.0% — have no effect on resolution.
• Strictly greater than 4.0%, not equal — A print of exactly 4.0% resolves NO, so traders long YES need the number to come in at least one decimal place above 4.0% (e.g., 4.1%+).
• Annualized rate, not quarter-over-quarter — The BEA Advance Estimate reports a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), which is roughly 4× the raw quarterly change — traders must not confuse a ~1% quarterly gain with the reported annualized figure.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXGDP settlement rules →