Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q1 2027?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth for Q1 2027 exceeds 3.5%.

• Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — The contract locks in the very first BEA print (Advance Estimate, released ~4 weeks after quarter-end); subsequent Second/Third Estimates or annual revisions that move the number above or below 3.5% have no effect on resolution.
• Strictly greater than 3.5%, not ≥ — A print of exactly 3.5% annualized resolves NO, so the threshold is exclusive — traders must price the probability of exceeding, not meeting, 3.5%.
• Annualized rate, not raw quarterly growth — The SAAR figure compounds the single-quarter change to an annual rate (~4× the raw quarterly move), so a ~0.86% actual quarterly gain is the effective threshold — confusing the two distorts fair-value estimates significantly.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXGDP settlement rules →