Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q2 2027?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth for Q2 2027 is strictly greater than 3.5%.

• Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — The BEA releases three vintages (Advance, Second, Third); only the first Advance print counts, so later revisions that move the number above or below 3.5% are irrelevant to settlement.
• Strictly greater than, not equal to 3.5% — A print of exactly 3.5% does NOT resolve YES — the threshold is exclusive, so a position holder needs the number to come in at least one basis point above 3.5%.
• Annualized rate, not quarterly change — The BEA Advance Estimate reports a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), not the raw quarter-over-quarter change (~0.86% quarterly ≈ 3.5% annualized), so traders must be careful not to confuse the two figures.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXGDP settlement rules →