Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth for Q3 2026 is strictly greater than 2.5%.

• Advance Estimate only — revisions excluded — Only the first BEA print (Advance Estimate) counts; subsequent Second, Third, or Annual revision releases — which can move the number materially — have no effect on resolution.
• Strictly greater than 2.5%, not ≥ — A print of exactly 2.5% resolves NO, so traders long YES need growth to exceed 2.5%, not merely match it.
• Annualized rate, not quarterly growth — The BEA Advance Estimate is expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), so the threshold of 2.5% applies to the annualized figure (~0.62% actual quarterly growth), not the raw quarter-over-quarter change.
• Q3 2026 Advance release timing — The Advance Estimate for Q3 (July–September 2026) is typically released in late October 2026, so the contract will not settle until that specific release date, affecting capital tie-up and position planning.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXGDP settlement rules →