KalshiMacro & economics
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q3 2026?
68c
YES · 68% implied
1K
contracts 24h
6K
open interest (contracts)
How this settles
Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth for Q3 2026 exceeds 2.0%.
- Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — Only the first BEA print (Advance Estimate) counts; subsequent Second, Third, or annual revision releases could show a different number but will not affect resolution.
- Strictly greater than 2.0%, not at or above — A print of exactly 2.0% resolves NO — the threshold is exclusive, so traders long YES need growth above 2.0%, not merely equal to it.
- Annualized rate, not quarter-over-quarter — The BEA Advance Estimate is reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), which is roughly 4× the raw quarterly change — conflating the two could badly misjudge proximity to the threshold.
Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXGDP settlement rules →
24h move: +0.0c
Related Macro & economics Markets
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
30¢+0.0¢
Will above 125000 jobs be added in August 2026?
15¢+0.0¢
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in August 2026?
8¢+0.0¢
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in August 2026?
3¢+0.0¢
Trade this market on Kalshi
Buy YES or NO directly on Kalshi
Compare this market on Polymarket
See if there's a price discrepancy worth trading
Get The 7 Oracles' take on this market — subscribe free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.