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KalshiMacro & economics

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

68c

YES · 68% implied

3K

contracts 24h

20K

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BLS-reported CPI 12-month inflation rate for the period ending August 2026 is above 3.3% (strictly greater than), using the one-decimal-place figure published by the BLS.

  • One-decimal-place BLS print is bindingThe resolution uses the rounded one-decimal-place figure (e.g., 3.3% vs 3.27% underlying), so a raw unrounded value above 3.3% could still round down to exactly 3.3% and resolve NO.
  • Strictly above 3.3%, not at or aboveA print of exactly 3.3% (one decimal) does NOT resolve YES — the threshold is strictly greater than 3.3%, so a position holder needs the reported figure to be at least 3.4%.
  • Initial release only vs. revisionsCPI data can be revised; the rules don't explicitly specify whether the first published print or a subsequent revision governs, which matters if BLS revises the August 2026 figure after initial release.
  • August 2026 release date vs. August 2026 periodCPI for the year ending August 2026 is published in mid-September 2026, not in August — traders must account for this lag when timing their positions or expecting settlement.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXCPIYOY settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

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