Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in August?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BLS-published seasonally adjusted Core CPI (All Urban Consumers, All Items less Food and Energy) for August 2026 shows a month-over-month increase strictly above 0.3%.

• Strict 'above 0.3%' — 0.3% itself loses — The threshold is exclusive ('>0.3%'), so an exact 0.3% print resolves NO, making the boundary tick critical for traders positioned near consensus.
• Seasonally adjusted print only — The BLS releases both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted figures; only the seasonally adjusted series counts, and the two can diverge meaningfully in August due to back-to-school seasonal patterns.
• No revision language — which print governs? — BLS regularly revises CPI data; the rules don't specify whether the initial release or a subsequent revision controls, leaving traders exposed if a revision crosses the 0.3% threshold in either direction.
• Month-over-month vs. year-over-year metric — Core CPI is widely quoted on both a monthly and annual basis; the contract specifies the monthly change, so traders must track the MoM figure, not the more headline-visible YoY reading.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXCPICORE settlement rules →