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KalshiMacro & economics

Will above 50000 jobs be added in August 2026?

53c

YES · 53% implied

624

contracts 24h

2K

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BLS Monthly Employment Situation Report shows total non-farm payroll employment increased by more than 50,000 in August 2026.

  • Initial release vs. later revisionsThe BLS revises payroll figures in subsequent months; the rules don't specify which print (advance, first revision, second revision, or annual benchmark) is used, creating ambiguity if the initial release is below 50K but a revision pushes it above (or vice versa).
  • Strict 'above' threshold — 50K not sufficientThe rules use 'above 50,000,' meaning an exact print of +50,000 resolves NO; a trader assuming ≥50,000 would be caught off-side.
  • August 2026 report release timingThe August 2026 employment data is typically released in early September 2026, so contract settlement may lag the reference month by weeks, affecting position management and capital lock-up.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXPAYROLLS settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

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