Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q4 2026?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth for Q4 2026 shows an increase of more than 2.5%.

• Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — The contract locks in the very first BEA print (Advance Estimate, released ~4 weeks after quarter-end); subsequent Second, Third, or annual revision prints — which can materially change the number — have no effect on resolution.
• Strictly greater than 2.5%, not ≥ — A reading of exactly 2.5% does NOT resolve YES; the rule says 'more than 2.5', so a trader long YES needs the print to exceed 2.5%, not merely match it.
• Annualized rate, not raw quarterly growth — The BEA Advance Estimate reports a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), which is roughly 4× the actual quarterly change — traders must not confuse a ~0.6% raw quarterly gain with the 2.5% annualized threshold.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXGDP settlement rules →