Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth for Q3 2026 shows an increase of more than 1.5%.

• Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — The contract locks in the first (Advance) print; subsequent BEA revisions (Second, Third Estimate) that may move the figure above or below 1.5% have no effect on resolution.
• Strictly greater than 1.5%, not ≥ — A reading of exactly 1.5% resolves NO, so traders long YES need the print to exceed 1.5%, not merely match it.
• Annualized rate, not quarter-over-quarter — The BEA Advance Estimate reports a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), which is roughly 4× the raw quarterly change — conflating the two metrics leads to large mispricing.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXGDP settlement rules →