Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the Fed's official website shows a federal funds rate upper bound strictly greater than 4.00% after the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting.

• Strictly greater than, not at or above 4.00% — An upper bound of exactly 4.00% resolves NO — the threshold is >4.00%, not ≥4.00%, so a position holder sitting at exactly 4.00% loses.
• Oct 28 meeting date may not be official FOMC date — The FOMC 2026 schedule has not been fully confirmed; if no meeting occurs on Oct 28, 2026 (or the meeting spans Oct 27–28), it's unclear which date or decision counts, potentially affecting resolution timing.
• Data source locked to Fed's official website only — Only the rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website (federalreserve.gov) is valid — CME, Bloomberg, or other sources are irrelevant even if they reflect the same decision.
• Post-meeting publication timing — The rate is read after the meeting concludes and is published on the Fed's website, so any delay in the official post-meeting statement or technical update to the site could affect when (or whether) resolution is triggered.

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