Will the maximum temperature be 97-98° on Aug 19, 2026?
47c
YES · 47% implied
1K
contracts 24h
951
open interest (contracts)
How this settles
Each contract in this series resolves YES if the maximum daily temperature recorded at Miami station CLIMIA on the settlement date meets the variant's specific threshold condition (between a range, strictly greater than, or strictly less than the threshold), as reported by The Weather Company.
- Inclusive range vs. strict inequality per variant — Variant 1 uses an inclusive 'between' range (≥94° and ≤95°), while Variants 2 and 3 use strict inequalities (strictly greater than / strictly less than the threshold), so hitting the exact boundary value resolves NO for those variants.
- Single source: The Weather Company only — Resolution relies exclusively on The Weather Company's reading for CLIMIA — NWS, Weather Underground, or any other data provider's figures are irrelevant, even if they differ materially.
- Station is CLIMIA, not a nearby Florida station — Only the CLIMIA station feed is used; readings from adjacent Miami-area stations (e.g., Miami Beach or Miami Executive Airport) do not count, even if geographically close.
- No revision clause stated — likely first/final print — The rules do not specify whether an initial or revised temperature reading governs, so traders should monitor whether The Weather Company updates its historical records post-settlement, as any correction may or may not be honored.
These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXHIGHMIA settlement rules →
24h move: +0.0c
Related Weather & climate Markets
Trade this market on Kalshi
Buy YES or NO directly on Kalshi
Compare this market on Polymarket
See if there's a price discrepancy worth trading
Get The 7 Oracles' take on this market — subscribe free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.