NFL WEEK 1

Model vs. Kalshi on all 16 openers

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KalshiWeather & climate

Will the maximum temperature be 97-98° on Aug 18, 2026?

8c

YES · 8% implied

31K

contracts 24h

16K

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Each contract in this series resolves YES if the maximum daily temperature recorded at Miami station CLIMIA on the settlement date meets the variant's specific threshold condition (between a range, strictly greater than, or strictly less than the threshold), as reported by The Weather Company.

  • Inclusive range vs. strict inequality per variantVariant 1 uses an inclusive 'between' range (≥94° and ≤95°), while Variants 2 and 3 use strict inequalities (strictly greater than / strictly less than the threshold), so hitting the exact boundary value resolves NO for those variants.
  • Single source: The Weather Company onlyResolution relies exclusively on The Weather Company's reading for CLIMIA — NWS, Weather Underground, or any other data provider's figures are irrelevant, even if they differ materially.
  • Station is CLIMIA, not a nearby Florida stationOnly the CLIMIA station feed is used; readings from adjacent Miami-area stations (e.g., Miami Beach or Miami Executive Airport) do not count, even if geographically close.
  • No revision clause stated — likely first/final printThe rules do not specify whether an initial or revised temperature reading governs, so traders should monitor whether The Weather Company updates its historical records post-settlement, as any correction may or may not be honored.

These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXHIGHMIA settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

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