NFL WEEK 1

Model vs. Kalshi on all 16 openers

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KalshiWeather & climate

Will the maximum temperature be <84° on Aug 19, 2026?

1c

YES · 1% implied

821

contracts 24h

771

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Each contract in this series resolves YES if the maximum daily temperature recorded at Denver station CLIDEN by The Weather Company falls within the specific range, above the threshold, or below the threshold defined for that contract's variant on its designated date.

  • Inclusive range vs. strict inequality per variantVariant 1 uses an inclusive band (between the two bounds), Variant 2 uses strictly greater than the threshold, and Variant 3 uses strictly less than the threshold — hitting an exact boundary value resolves differently depending on which variant a trader holds.
  • Station is CLIDEN, not a general Denver airport or NWS readingThe Weather Company's CLIDEN reading may differ from other commonly referenced Denver weather stations (e.g., KDEN/NWS), so traders must track the specific CLIDEN data feed to avoid surprises at settlement.
  • Date boundary differs across variants in the seriesVariants 1 and 2 settle on one date while Variant 3 settles on the following day — traders must confirm they hold the correct variant for the date they intend to trade.
  • No revision policy stated; first or final print unclearThe rules do not specify whether settlement uses The Weather Company's initial reading or a later corrected value, which matters if CLIDEN data is revised after the observation date.

These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXHIGHDEN settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

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