Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q2 2027?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth for Q2 2027 is strictly greater than 4.0%.

• Advance Estimate only — revisions excluded — Only the first (Advance) print triggers resolution; subsequent BEA revisions (Second, Third Estimate) are ignored, so a position could resolve against you even if later data revises the number above or below 4.0%.
• Strictly greater than 4.0, not 4.0 itself — An exact print of 4.0% resolves NO — the threshold is exclusive — so a trader pricing in a 4.0% outcome as a YES is exposed to a loss.
• Annualized rate, not quarterly growth — The BEA's SAAR figure is annualized (~4× the raw quarterly change), so traders must not confuse a ~1% quarterly gain with the 4.0% annualized hurdle.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXGDP settlement rules →