Part of The 7 OraclesOracle Gas Edge
Vintage pump cross-read · Live AAA + RBOB + Kalshi · Model the AAA print and trade the gap vs the Kalshi monthly market.
Quick Answer
Oracle Gas Edge is a nightly model for Kalshi's KXAAAGASM monthly gas market. It anchors on today's AAA national average, leads it with RBOB wholesale futures and the California lead state, then reads the forecast against the Kalshi strike ladder to surface where the contract looks mispriced.
AAA National — 30-Day Series with Strike Overlay
Strike Trajectory — 14-Day Intraday · Settlement Window
Ticker: KXAAAGASM-26JUN30-3.85 · Strike $3.850 · Resolves 2026-06-30
Live KXAAAGASM samples as the monthly contract approaches resolution. The market re-prices as fresh AAA prints land — the model's estimate vs that drift is the edge we trade.
Daily Δ Distribution · Rolling Window
Move Buckets
| Δ < −$0.02 | 14 days | 53.8% |
| −$0.02 to $0 | 12 days | 46.2% |
| $0 to +$0.02 | 0 days | 0.0% |
| +$0.02 to +$0.05 | 0 days | 0.0% |
| > +$0.05 | 0 days | 0.0% |
Nightly Plays · KXAAAGASM Series
| Resolution | Strike | Model | Kalshi Yes | Edge | Action | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jun 30 | $3.850 | 65% | 54¢ | +11.3pp | YES | 5.0% bankroll |
★ Pro Plays
Tonight's sized play recommendation, edge, and entry price are a Pro feature.
Live nightly edge alerts hit Discord 11:56 PM ET, plus the full plays history with P&L. Sized via half-Kelly, capped at 5% bankroll per single-day contract.
Unlock Pro · $14.99/mo →Nightly Refresh Job · ~11:55 PM ET
Methodology.AAA's daily print is an OPIS aggregate of credit/debit transactions from up to 120,000 stations via WEX, published each morning. The model anchors on today's AAA print — retail pump prices are sticky day-to-day, so the prior print is the best baseline — then applies directional leads: RBOB wholesale gasoline futures (refiners pass wholesale moves through to the pump over days), the California 1-day delta (PADD V supply isolation makes it move first), a day-of-week skew, and 30-day drift. Output is a point forecast plus σ; we compute P(AAA > strike) from the normal CDF and compare it to the Kalshi implied probability.
Free preview gate. The model is in a 40-day calibration window: each night theoracle-gas-edgejob logs a prediction and grades it against the next AAA print. Until those nightly predictions have a track record — through June 17, 2026 — plays are gated for everyone. The pumps, drift stats, and 30-day series stay free the whole window; sized Pro recommendations unlock when calibration completes.
Edge sources, ranked. (1) RBOB wholesale move (the lead — wholesale repricing flows to retail), (2) California 1-day delta (highest-weight + highest-vol state), (3) 30-day drift + day-of-week skew, (4) Refinery outage news, (5) Crude oil close direction, (6) Hormuz throughput proxy. Stack 3+ signals the same direction for max-confidence entries. Trade responsibly.
Why this edge exists
The Kalshi KXAAAGASM monthly contract settles on the AAA national average — an OPIS aggregate of credit/debit transactions from up to 120,000 stations via WEX. Retail pump prices are sticky day-to-day, so today's AAA print is the model's anchor. The edge comes from the leads that move before retail does: wholesale gasoline (RBOB) reprices first and flows to the pump over days, and California — the highest-weight, highest-volatility state — turns ahead of the national average.
On top of the AAA anchor the model adds three terms: an RBOB intraday pass-through (refinery-margin channel, the primary lead), a California 1-day delta, and a Friday/Saturday skew, with a half-weight 30-day drift. Output is a point prediction plus σ. We compute P(AAA > strike) from the standard normal CDF, compare it to the Kalshi implied probability, and flag positions when the gap exceeds ±5pp.
How to use the dashboard
The pump station is the live cross-read. AAA on the left is the latest national print — the number Kalshi settles on. California in the middle is the lead state, shown as its premium over the national average. Kalshi on the right is the live monthly contract, with the strike and current YES ask. The verdict bar tells you the model's P(Yes) versus the implied probability and the recommendation. During the free preview window plays are gated for everyone; after Day 40 (June 17) Pro subscribers see sized recommendations live.
Pair with
Oil Edge for the WTI/RBOB upstream signal, Silver Edge for the same daily-snapshot pattern on metals, Weather Edge for NWS-driven Kalshi temperature markets, and Kelly Calculator to size each entry against your own bankroll.