Part of The 7 OraclesOracle Gas Edge
Vintage pump cross-read · Live AAA + GasBuddy + Kalshi · Trade tomorrow's AAA print before it lands.
AAA National — 30-Day Series with Strike Overlay
Daily Δ Distribution · Rolling Window
Move Buckets
Tonight's Plays · KXAAAGASD Series
| Resolution | Strike | Model | Kalshi Yes | Edge | Action | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, May 9 | $4.560 | 47% | 8¢ | +38.7pp | YES | 5.0% bankroll |
★ Pro Plays — unlock June 17
Live edge calls with sized recommendations unlock after our 40-day calibration periodends. We're on Day 2.
The free preview of methodology, drift stats, and the 30-day series stays open the whole time. Lock in $14.99/mo (or $150/yr) now and we'll grandfather you in when plays go live Jun 17, 2026.
Lock In Pro · $14.99/mo →Nightly Timing Job · 11:54–11:59 PM ET
Methodology.AAA's daily print is an OPIS aggregate of credit/debit transactions from up to 120,000 stations via WEX. Tomorrow's ~4:30 AM ET print reflects today's transaction data. GasBuddy at 11:55 PM tonight reads the same transaction pool in near-real-time, making it the highest-fidelity free leading indicator. The nightly job pulls Kalshi at 11:54 PM (giving us bid/ask), GasBuddy at 11:55 PM (the leading-indicator snapshot), runs the model, and emits a verdict by 11:56 PM — leaving you 3 minutes to act before the 11:59 PM Kalshi close.
Calibration gate. The AAA-GasBuddy spread is currently estimated. Real, day-by-day spread data is logging tonight via theoracle-gas-loggeredge function. After 40 nights of paired captures we have a tight enough confidence interval (<$0.005) to make Pro plays defensible. Until June 17, plays are gated for all users — the methodology, drift stats, vol/spread band, and 30-day series stay free.
Edge sources, ranked. (1) GasBuddy spread to AAA at 23:55 ET, (2) California 1-day delta (highest-weight + highest-vol state), (3) RBOB intraday move (same-day pump repricing channel), (4) Refinery outage news, (5) Crude oil close direction, (6) Hormuz throughput proxy. Stack 4+ signals same direction for max-confidence entries. Trade responsibly.
Why this edge exists
Two markets price the same number through different mechanisms. AAA settles the Kalshi KXAAAGASD daily contract on its 4:30 AM ET aggregate of OPIS transaction data — yesterday's pump activity, post-processed. GasBuddy reads the same retail transaction pool in near-real-time, with the highest-fidelity free leading indicator we can find. At 11:55 PM ET — four minutes before Kalshi closes the daily contract — we have effectively seen tomorrow's answer.
The model adds three small adjustments on top of GasBuddy + 30-day spread: a California 1-day delta term (highest-weight + highest-vol state), an RBOB intraday pass-through term (refinery margin channel), and a Friday/Saturday skew. Output is a point prediction plus σ. We compute P(AAA > strike) from the standard normal CDF, compare it to the Kalshi implied probability, and flag positions when the gap exceeds ±5pp.
How to use the dashboard
The pump station is the live cross-read. AAA on the left is yesterday's print — the number Kalshi settled on this morning. GasBuddy in the middle is tonight's leading-indicator read. Kalshi on the right is the live contract for tomorrow's print, with the strike and current YES ask. The verdict bar tells you the model's P(Yes) versus the implied probability and the recommendation. During the calibration window plays are gated for everyone; after Day 40 (June 17) Pro subscribers see sized recommendations live.
Pair with
Oil Edge for the WTI/RBOB upstream signal, Silver Edge for the same daily-snapshot pattern on metals, Weather Edge for NWS-driven Kalshi temperature markets, and Kelly Calculator to size each entry against your own bankroll.