Starting Lineups ▾
Netherlands (4-3-3)
- 1. Bart Verbruggen
- 2. Denzel Dumfries
- 3. Jan-Paul van Hecke
- 4. Virgil van Dijk
- 5. Micky van de Ven
- 6. Frenkie de Jong
- 7. Tijjani Reijnders
- 8. Ryan Gravenberch
- 9. Donyell Malen
- 10. Cody Gakpo
- 11. Crysencio Summerville
Japan (3-4-2-1)
- 1. Zion Suzuki
- 2. Shogo Taniguchi
- 3. Hiroki Ito
- 4. Watanabe
- 5. Kaishu Sano
- 6. Daichi Kamada
- 7. Daizen Maeda
- 8. Ritsu Doan
- 9. Keito Nakamura
- 10. Takefusa Kubo
- 11. Ayase Ueda
Netherlands 2–2 Japan: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Quick Answer
Netherlands 2–2 Japan — full time, 2026 World Cup Group F. Goals: Dijk 51', Nakamura 57', Summerville 64', Kamada 89'. Our pre-match call (Gakpo anytime scorer) missed.
Suspension Watch
Netherlands without Xavi Simons and Jerdy Schouten (both ACL); Memphis Depay carrying a hamstring and a doubt to start (Wout Weghorst expected to lead the line); Matthijs de Ligt not fully fit. Frenkie de Jong is fit and expected to start — the midfield upgrade is on, not in doubt. Japan miss first-choice winger Kaoru Mitoma (hamstring); Wataru Endo is a game-time decision and not projected to start, with Ao Tanaka and Kaishu Sano in central midfield.
Live model · simulation updated
Environment
Dallas in mid-summer can run hot for afternoon kickoffs. The model nudges combined goal expectation down a few percent versus a cool-evening baseline as tempo drops in the closing stages.
Model adjustment per The 7 Oracles methodology.
Actionable Plays
Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — Netherlands
Market Edges — Japan
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · Netherlands vs Japan
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | ||||
| Cody Gakpotop pick | ✓ | 19 | 1.2% | |
| Donyell Malen | — | 15 | — | |
| Japan | ||||
| Takefusa Kubo | ✓ | 8 | — | |
| Daizen Maeda | — | 9 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group F · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | +1686 | 5.6% | 100% |
| Japan | +3233 | 3% | 100% |
| Sweden | +19900 | 0.5% | 100% |
| Tunisia | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
Ronald Koeman's Netherlands play a physical 4-3-3 that defends compactly and attacks with pace on the wings. Van Dijk organizes the backline. Gakpo and Reijnders provide creativity. This team lacks the flair of historic Dutch squads but compensates with organization and physicality.
Key Scorers
Cody Gakpo · 19g
Liverpool…
Donyell Malen · 15g
Roma (on loan from Aston Villa)…
Memphis Depay · 14g
Corinthians…
Key Creators
- Cody Gakpo · Left wing
- Frenkie de Jong · Central midfielder / Deep playmaker
- Tijjani Reijnders · Central CM
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Cody Gakpo
- Free Kicks
- Memphis Depay (returned from a hamstring issue as a 70' sub vs Japan; Gakpo / Reijnders cover when he doesn't start)
- Corners
- Memphis Depay / Cody Gakpo
Aerial Threats
- Virgil van Dijk — Liverpool captain…
- Micky van de Ven — Tottenham CB…
Tactical Notes
Netherlands are the tournament's 'danger team' — not outright favorites but capable of beating anyone on a given day. They reached the 2022 QF and lost to Argentina on PKs in a classic. Van Dijk in the center of defense is world-class. Injury picture for the Japan opener (MD1): Xavi Simons and Jerdy Schouten are both out for the tournament with ACL injuries; Memphis Depay is managing a hamstring and is a doubt to start, with Wout Weghorst expected to lead the line as a target man; Matthijs de Ligt is not fully fit. The good news — Frenkie de Jong is fit and expected to start, so the midfield (De Jong, Gravenberch, Reijnders) is at full strength, not in doubt. Probable XI vs Japan (4-3-3): Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van de Ven, Van Dijk (c), Ake; Gravenberch, De Jong, Reijnders; Malen, Weghorst, Gakpo. Japan is the classic trap game — they beat Germany and Spain in 2022 and beat Brazil and England in 2025-26 friendlies — but they are missing first-choice winger Kaoru Mitoma here. MD1 RESULT (Jun 14, vs Japan, 2-2 draw): took the lead twice (Van Dijk 51' off a Gravenberch cross; sub Summerville 64', Gravenberch's 2nd assist) but conceded a 57' Nakamura strike and an 89' Kamada header from a Junya Ito corner — a clear set-piece-defending weakness despite Van Dijk/van de Ven's aerial size. Depay (hamstring) came off the bench at 70'; Gakpo started and blanked; Weghorst unused. Corners on the night were taken by Reijnders and Depay, not just the listed pair. 1 point, must tighten set pieces vs Sweden/Tunisia.
Qual
9-3-4
GF
34
GA
18
Playing Style
Hajime Moriyasu's Japan play an adventurous 3-4-2-1 that blitzed Germany and Spain in 2022. Width comes from the wing-backs — Yukinari Sugawara on the right and veteran Yuto Nagatomo on the left in the probable MD1 XI — with Kubo and Doan as the two advanced 10s behind the striker. Takefusa Kubo is the creative fulcrum. This is the best Japanese squad ever assembled — packed with European starters. Note: the 2025-26 vintage has tightened up defensively (back-to-back clean sheets vs Scotland and England), so the old blanket OVER lean is softer than it looks.
Key Scorers
Takefusa Kubo · 8g
Real Sociedad…
Daizen Maeda · 9g
Celtic…
Ritsu Doan · 9g
Freiburg…
Key Creators
- Takefusa Kubo · No. 10 / Right attacking mid
- Daichi Kamada · No. 10 / Central mid
- Ritsu Doan · Advanced No. 10 (right side)
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Takefusa Kubo
- Free Kicks
- Takefusa Kubo
- Corners
- Takefusa Kubo / Ritsu Doan (delivery) / Kō Itakura (target)
Aerial Threats
- Kō Itakura — Borussia Mönchengladbach centre back…
- Ritsu Doan — Stronger in the air than his frame suggests…
Tactical Notes
Japan are the tournament's most exciting dark horse. They beat Germany and Spain in the 2022 group stage — and in 2025-26 they beat Brazil and England in friendlies, with back-to-back clean sheets vs Scotland and England. The squad is littered with European starters. Moriyasu's 3-4-2-1 is attack-minded and technically excellent, but the recent results show a more disciplined, lower-block-capable side than the chaos-and-overs 2022 vintage — temper the blanket 'overs every game' read. For the Netherlands opener (MD1) they are without first-choice winger Kaoru Mitoma (hamstring), and Wataru Endo is a game-time decision not projected to start — Ao Tanaka and Kaishu Sano are the likely central-midfield pair. Probable XI (3-4-2-1): Zion Suzuki; Hiroki Ito, Ko Itakura, Shogo Taniguchi; Sugawara, Sano, Tanaka, Nagatomo; Kubo, Doan; Ueda (c). Key risk remains the 3-back on transition — Netherlands' pace (Malen, Gakpo) targets exactly that. Group F is still winnable. MD1 RESULT (Jun 14, vs Netherlands, 2-2 draw): came from two goals down — Keito Nakamura (57', assist Kubo) and Daichi Kamada (89' header). The equalizer was a set-piece: Junya Ito corner, sub Koki Ogawa won the header onto Kamada — Ogawa is a live aerial weapon off the bench. Kubo started and created; Mitoma still out. No cards, disciplined. Comeback identity confirmed.
Qual
11-2-3
GF
38
GA
12
Who is favored in Netherlands vs Japan?
Netherlands and Japan meet in Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-14 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas. Our simulation gives Netherlands a clear edge — a 13-point win probability gap separating these sides. Netherlands enters with a 100% advancement probability in our model vs Japan at 100%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Both Teams to Score is also in play — both sides have real scoring threats that should test the opposing defense. Top value play: Gakpo anytime scorer.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
Netherlands’s Other Matches
Other Group F Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
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