Tunisia vs Sweden: World Cup 2026 Prediction

Match Analysis

Tunisia and Sweden meet in Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-13 at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. Our simulation gives Sweden a clear edge — a 13-point win probability gap separating these sides. Tunisia enters with a 49.7% advancement probability in our model vs Sweden at 49.1%. This shapes up as a tighter, lower-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals is the lean based on defensive profiles and group stage conservative tactics. Top value play: Gyökeres anytime scorer.

Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that's where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →

For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.