SHARED COMBO

3-leg Kalshi same-game combo

Priced against its true joint probability from a Poisson + Dixon-Coles scoreline model.

SMASHHits ~28% of the time

Worth +264 · EV +55.4%

The combo

Norway vs England

• Over 2.5 goals

• England win (regulation)

• Both teams to score

Win %

28%

Correlation bonus

+55.4%

Fair odds

+264

Fair band

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Kalshi has no same-game parlay product — you buy each leg as its own contract. This is a model-derived snapshot for education, not advice. Trade responsibly.