Core PCE Price Index — Impact on Fed Rate Prediction Markets
The Fed explicitly targets 2% Core PCE. A surprise above consensus is the most direct signal of policy persistence. Often described as the FOMC's 'true north.'
+/-
per 1σ surprise
↑ Hawkish
when high vs consensus
Pre-calibration
data points
Release Schedule
Frequency
Monthly
Release time
8:30 AM ET
Delay
~30 days after month end
FRED series
PCEPILFE
Historical Releases
Data populates automatically once the FRED ingest pipeline is running.
How Core PCE Price Index Moves Fed Rate Prediction Markets
Personal Consumption Expenditures price index excluding food and energy — the Fed's official preferred inflation measure.
The Fed explicitly targets 2% Core PCE. A surprise above consensus is the most direct signal of policy persistence. Often described as the FOMC's 'true north.'
The Bayesian Sensitivity Model
The model calibrates a sensitivity coefficient for each indicator: how many percentage points the cut probability at the next FOMC meeting moves per standard deviation of surprise. For Core PCE, the preliminary coefficient is ±+/- 5–8pp on cut probability. This means ifCore PCE comes in 1 standard deviation above consensus (hawkish surprise), the model reduces cut probability by approximately +/- 5–8pp on cut probability.
These coefficients are preliminary until calibrated from at least 20 historical observations of Kalshi price reactions to each release. The calibration uses a regression of (surprise_zscore × sensitivity_coefficient) against observed Kalshi probability changes, cross-validated against CME FedWatch data going back to 2015.
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