Scotland 1–0 Haiti: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
Quick Answer
Scotland 1–0 Haiti — full time, 2026 World Cup Group C. Goals: McGinn 28'. Our pre-match call (Under 2.5 goals) hit.
Live model · simulation updated
Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — Scotland
Market Edges — Haiti
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · Scotland vs Haiti
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | ||||
| Scott McTominay | ✓ | 16 | — | |
| Che Adams | — | 16 | — | |
| Haiti | ||||
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | ✓ | 14 | — | |
| Duckens Nazon | — | 9 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group C · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | +1308 | 7.1% | 100% |
| Morocco | +4662 | 2.1% | 100% |
| Haiti | <0.1% | 0% | |
| Scotland | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
Steve Clarke's Scotland qualified for their first World Cup since France 1998 — a historic achievement in the expanded format. Scott McTominay (Napoli, 28) is the driving force: goals from midfield, physicality, and the ability to decide big moments. Andrew Robertson (Liverpool, 32) remains one of the world's best left backs. John McGinn (Aston Villa) provides energy and passing range. Che Adams is the forward option. Scotland are hard to beat, compact, and dangerous at set pieces. They won't embarrass themselves. Advancing from the group requires beating at least one higher-rated opponent. Totals: UNDER — Clarke builds teams to defend and grind.
Key Scorers
Scott McTominay · 16g
Napoli…
Che Adams · 16g
Torino…
John McGinn · 11g
Aston Villa…
Key Creators
- Scott McTominay · Central midfielder
- Andrew Robertson · Left back
- John McGinn · Central midfielder
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Scott McTominay
- Free Kicks
- John McGinn
- Corners
- Andrew Robertson / John McGinn (delivery) / Scott McTominay, Grant Hanley (targets)
Aerial Threats
- Grant Hanley — Norwich City CB…
- Scott McTominay — 6'4"…
Tactical Notes
Scotland punch above their weight because Clarke has instilled genuine belief and a defined playing style. The 4-3-3 presses with intensity, defends as a unit, and creates through Robertson's overlaps and McTominay's forward runs. The ceiling is limited — Scotland don't have world-class attacking talent after McTominay. Group C draw is the key variable. Against any team ranked outside the top 20, Scotland are competitive. Against a top-10 side, they're likely to lose but make it hard. McTominay is the match-winner: if he's on form in their easiest group game, Scotland could sneak a result that changes everything. MD1 RESULT (Jun 13, vs Haiti, 1-0 win): John McGinn's 28' goal (deflected, off a rebound) settled a grind at Gillette Stadium — the under (1 goal) landed comfortably. The defensive shape held a clean sheet; low-event profile intact. Three points from a winnable opener is the dream start in Group C.
Qual
8-2-4
GF
20
GA
15
Playing Style
Haiti are making their second World Cup appearance (first was 1974) after winning the CONCACAF qualification playoff. Coach Sebastien Migne has installed a defensive 4-5-1 that is hard to break down but offers little going forward. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (Wolves) is the best player in Haitian football history — a technically gifted box-to-box midfielder who makes Oliver Glasner's Eagles tick. Duckens Nazon provides the pace threat on the counter. Group C with Brazil, Morocco, and Scotland is brutal — Haiti's realistic target is avoiding historic embarrassments and possibly stealing a point off Scotland. Totals: UNDER — Migne teams sit deep and make games ugly.
Key Scorers
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · 14g
Wolves…
Duckens Nazon · 9g
PAOK (Greece)…
Frantzdy Pierrot · 8g
AEK Larnaca…
Key Creators
- Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Central midfielder
- Duckens Nazon · Second striker / Left winger
- Carlens Arcus · Right back
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
- Free Kicks
- Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
- Corners
- Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (delivery) / Frantzdy Pierrot, Ricardo Adé (aerial targets)
Aerial Threats
- Ricardo Adé — Physical centre back, 6'2"…
- Duckens Nazon — Less of an aerial threat but attacks short corners and flick-ons…
Tactical Notes
Haiti are in survival mode in Group C. Brazil and Morocco are genuine title threats. Scotland are a fully professional European side. Migne will park the bus, give Bellegarde freedom to create, and hope for one set piece moment. The realistic scenario: three losses, 0 points, minimum 2-5 goals conceded total. The market overestimates how often massive underdogs score at World Cups. Haiti will keep it below 2 goals per game through sheer defensive effort. Bellegarde v Brazil is the matchup to watch — a Premier League midfielder on the biggest stage. MD1 RESULT (Jun 13, vs Scotland, 0-1 loss): competitive but blank on their World Cup return, beaten by a single deflected McGinn strike. Defended well enough to keep it to one; the issue was creating clear chances. Must find goals to stay alive in the group.
Qual
5-4-4
GF
14
GA
16
Who is favored in Scotland vs Haiti?
Scotland and Haiti meet in Group C at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-13 at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough. Our simulation gives Scotland a clear edge — a 36-point win probability gap separating these sides. Scotland enters with a 0% advancement probability in our model vs Haiti at 0%. This shapes up as a tighter, lower-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals is the lean based on defensive profiles and group stage conservative tactics. Top value play: Under 2.5 goals.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
Scotland’s Other Matches
Haiti’s Other Matches
Other Group C Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
Run the Numbers
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