Who will win Morocco vs Scotland at the 2026 World Cup?

Our 10,000-simulation model gives Morocco a 41% win probability, with 25% chance of a draw and 34% for Scotland. Top value play: Morocco to win.

Will Morocco vs Scotland go over 2.5 goals?

Our simulation projects this match as an Over 2.5 goals lean based on both teams' attacking output and defensive profiles.

GROUP CMATCHDAY 3

Morocco vs Scotland: World Cup 2026 Prediction

2026-06-22 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Morocco vs Scotland — World Cup 2026 Group C prediction graphic

10,000 Sim Result

41%Morocco+144

25%Draw+300

34%Scotland+194

Over 2.5: Yes ✓BTTS: No

Top Value Play

Morocco to win

Morocco

Odds+4900

Advance %95.1%

Win title %2%

Scotland

Odds+99999

Advance %50.3%

Win title %0%

Match Analysis

Morocco and Scotland meet in Group C at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-22 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. This is one of the tighter matches in Group C. The simulation sees these teams as closely matched, with just a 7-point spread. Morocco enters with a 95.1% advancement probability in our model vs Scotland at 50.3%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Top value play: Morocco to win.

Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that's where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →

For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.