Fed Rate Forecast: End of 2026
Expires In
233d 4hAs of April 20, 2026, the Kalshi prediction market prices the Federal Reserve’s end-of-2026 target range across 11 contracts resolving December 9, 2026. The market favorite is Above 2.75% at 75¢ (75% implied probability), followed by Above 3.00% at 62¢ and Above 3.25% at 47¢. Combined 24-hour volume is $699. Prices sum to roughly 100¢ across all contracts. The most likely 25bp bucket is Below 2.75% at 25% implied probability.
- Market Favorite
- Above 2.75%
- Favorite Price
- 75¢
- Contracts Tracked
- 11
- 24-Hour Volume
- $699
- Market Close Date
- December 9, 2026
- Primary Platform
- Kalshi
Where the Market Sees the Rate Landing
Implied probability for each 25bp target range after the December 9, 2026 FOMC. Computed from adjacent differences in the cumulative ladder below.
- Below 2.75%25%
- 2.75–3.00%13%
- 3.00–3.25%15%
- 3.25–3.50%13%
- 3.50–3.75%22%
- 3.75–4.00%0%
- 4.00–4.25%5%
- 4.25–4.50%3%
- 4.50–4.75%1%
- 4.75–5.00%1%
- 5.00–5.25%3%
- Above 5.25%3%
Why this matters — how to read the distribution
Kalshi quotes cumulative“Above X%” contracts: each price represents the implied probability the Fed funds upper bound is strictly greaterthan that strike after December 9, 2026. Sharps think in cumulative terms because it’s how the tail risk trades.
The bucket distribution above converts that ladder into discrete 25bp outcomes by taking adjacent differences. A bucket showing 18% means the market assigns an 18% probability to the rate landing inside that exact range. It’s the same information, just in the shape humans actually reason about (“the market thinks the rate ends 2026 between 3.00% and 3.25%”).
The favorite is the favorite because that range has the highest implied probability. If your model disagrees meaningfully with the cheapest adjacent bucket, that’s where your edge lives.
Market Board — 11 Contracts
Total 24h volume: $699 · Prices represent implied probability. They sum to ≈100¢ across all outcomes.
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