Fed Rate Forecast: End of 2026
Expires In
107d 10hAs of August 24, 2026, the Kalshi prediction market prices the Federal Reserve’s end-of-2026 target range across 11 contracts resolving December 9, 2026. The market favorite is Above 2.75% at 99¢ (99% implied probability), followed by Above 3.00% at 99¢ and Above 3.25% at 98¢. Combined 24-hour volume is $48. Prices sum to roughly 100¢ across all contracts. The most likely 25bp bucket is 3.75–4.00% at 36% implied probability.
- Market Favorite
- Above 2.75%
- Favorite Price
- 99¢
- Contracts Tracked
- 11
- 24-Hour Volume
- $48
- Market Close Date
- December 9, 2026
- Primary Platform
- Kalshi
Where the Market Sees the Rate Landing
Implied probability for each 25bp target range after the December 9, 2026 FOMC. Computed from adjacent differences in the cumulative ladder below.
- Below 2.75%1%
- 2.75–3.00%0%
- 3.00–3.25%1%
- 3.25–3.50%14%
- 3.50–3.75%31%
- 3.75–4.00%36%
- 4.00–4.25%14%
- 4.25–4.50%2%
- 4.50–4.75%0%
- 4.75–5.00%0%
- 5.00–5.25%0%
- Above 5.25%1%
Why this matters — how to read the distribution
Kalshi quotes cumulative “Above X%” contracts: each price represents the implied probability the Fed funds upper bound is strictly greater than that strike after December 9, 2026. Sharps think in cumulative terms because it’s how the tail risk trades.
The bucket distribution above converts that ladder into discrete 25bp outcomes by taking adjacent differences. A bucket showing 18% means the market assigns an 18% probability to the rate landing inside that exact range. It’s the same information, just in the shape humans actually reason about (“the market thinks the rate ends 2026 between 3.00% and 3.25%”).
The favorite is the favorite because that range has the highest implied probability. If your model disagrees meaningfully with the cheapest adjacent bucket, that’s where your edge lives.
Market Board — 11 Contracts
Total 24h volume: $48 · Prices represent implied probability. They sum to ≈100¢ across all outcomes.
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Fed Rate Forecast: End of 2026 — FAQ
Who is the Fed Rate Forecast: End of 2026 market favorite?
As of August 24, 2026, Above 2.75% leads the Fed Rate Forecast: End of 2026 market at 99¢ (99% implied probability), followed by Above 3.00% at 99¢ and Above 3.25% at 98¢. The market tracks 11 contracts on Kalshi with a combined $48 in 24-hour trading volume.
How does a multi-outcome prediction market work?
Each contract in this market represents a single outcome (e.g. "Above 2.75% wins"). Prices are quoted in cents from 0–100 and represent implied probability. Across all contracts in the event, prices sum to roughly 100¢. You take a position by buying the contract for the outcome you believe is mispriced — each contract pays $1.00 if it resolves in your favor.
When does this Kalshi market close?
This market closes on December 9, 2026. After that, all contracts resolve based on the real-world outcome.
Where will the Fed funds rate be at the end of 2026?
As of August 24, 2026, the Kalshi prediction market prices the most likely end-of-2026 Fed funds target range at 3.75–4.00% with 36% implied probability. The market tracks 11 "Above X%" contracts resolving December 9, 2026 after the final FOMC meeting of the year.
How many rate cuts is the market pricing for the rest of 2026?
The bucket distribution implies the market's central expectation for where the Fed funds upper bound settles after the December 9, 2026 FOMC. Bucket probabilities are computed from adjacent differences in the cumulative "Above X%" ladder and reflect implied 25bp-range outcomes.
What does the December 2026 FOMC meeting market resolve to?
Each "Above X%" contract resolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target range is strictly greater than the listed strike following the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting, per the official Federal Reserve release.