Who will win Iran vs New Zealand at the 2026 World Cup?

Our 10,000-simulation model gives Iran a 38% win probability, with 25% chance of a draw and 37% for New Zealand. Top value play: Under 2.5 goals.

Will Iran vs New Zealand go over 2.5 goals?

Our simulation projects this match as an Under 2.5 goals lean based on both teams' attacking output and defensive profiles.

GROUP GMATCHDAY 2

Iran vs New Zealand: World Cup 2026 Prediction

2026-06-20 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

Iran vs New Zealand — World Cup 2026 Group G prediction graphic

10,000 Sim Result

38%Iran+163

25%Draw+300

37%New Zealand+170

Over 2.5: NoBTTS: No

Top Value Play

Under 2.5 goals

Iran

Odds+49900

Advance %76.7%

Win title %0.2%

New Zealand

Odds+99999

Advance %29.4%

Win title %0%

Match Analysis

Iran and New Zealand meet in Group G at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-20 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. This is one of the tighter matches in Group G. The simulation sees these teams as closely matched, with just a 1-point spread. Iran enters with a 76.7% advancement probability in our model vs New Zealand at 29.4%. This shapes up as a tighter, lower-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals is the lean based on defensive profiles and group stage conservative tactics. Top value play: Under 2.5 goals.

Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that's where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →

For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.