2026 NFL Week 1 Predictions: All 16 Games vs. Kalshi Markets

Power-rating-based win probabilities for every 2026 NFL Week 1 matchup, compared head-to-head with live prediction-market prices on Kalshi. Edges flagged at our 5-percentage-point threshold — the minimum gap where, after accounting for typical 2–4¢ Kalshi spreads, a position is actually worth taking.

Last updated: Sun, May 24, 11:05 PM EDT2 edges0 no-bet14 quiet markets

2026 NFL · Week 1 · Featured EdgeMon, Sep 14, 9:15 PM EDT

DENatKC

GEHA Field at Arrowhead, Kansas City, MO

Our Model

43.0%

KC win

Kalshi

57¢

KC YES

Edge

-13.5pp

model − mkt

Verdict: BUY YES DEN @ 44¢

Trade on Kalshi

Power Ratings

DEN+0.87

KC-4.02

Home-field+2.50

Projected margin-2.4

KC favored (2.4 pts)

How We Predict NFL Games

Every 2026 team gets a single number on the points-per-game scale — our 2026 power rating — built from 27 seasons of opponent-adjusted EPA, a Bayesian preseason prior that shrinks last season's results toward the mean, and per-component offense / defense / special-teams shrinkage. To predict a Week 1 game, we take the home team's rating, subtract the away team's rating, add a standard +2.5 home-field bump, and convert that point spread to a win probability through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5 — the standard deviation of single-game margins across modern NFL history.

Then we pull the live Kalshi orderbook for both sides of the matchup, take the mid of the best YES bid and the implied YES ask (100 minus the best NO bid), and compare. If our model probability beats the market by at least 5 percentage points, we recommend buying YES at the actionable side — that's our floor for action, set wide enough to clear typical Kalshi 2–4¢ bid/ask spreads. Anything tighter than 5pp is a pass: real edge, but not enough to overcome friction.

The result for Week 1: 2 games with actionable edges, 0 games where the market and our model agree closely enough to skip, and any "quiet markets" listed but not yet trading actively on Kalshi.

All 16 Week 1 Games

Wed, Sep 9, 11:15 PM EDT

NEatSEA

Seattle, WA

No market

Our Model

57.8%

SEA win

Kalshi

—

SEA YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: NE 3.34 · SEA 3.49. Projected margin +2.7 for SEA (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Thu, Sep 10, 11:35 PM EDT

SFatLA

Inglewood, CA

No market

Our Model

63.0%

LA win

Kalshi

—

LA YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: SF 1.01 · LA 2.99. Projected margin +4.5 for LA (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT

NOatDET

Detroit, MI

No market

Our Model

63.6%

DET win

Kalshi

—

DET YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: NO -1.01 · DET 1.17. Projected margin +4.7 for DET (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT

BALatIND

Indianapolis, IN

No market

Our Model

60.8%

IND win

Kalshi

—

IND YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: BAL -0.46 · IND 0.74. Projected margin +3.7 for IND (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT

CHIatCAR

Charlotte, NC

No market

Our Model

51.4%

CAR win

Kalshi

—

CAR YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: CHI 0.95 · CAR -1.08. Projected margin +0.5 for CAR (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT

BUFatHOU

Houston, TX

No market

Our Model

54.5%

HOU win

Kalshi

—

HOU YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: BUF 2.24 · HOU 1.28. Projected margin +1.5 for HOU (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT

CLEatJAX

Jacksonville, FL

No market

Our Model

72.2%

JAX win

Kalshi

—

JAX YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: CLE -2.75 · JAX 2.71. Projected margin +8.0 for JAX (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT

ATLatPIT

Pittsburgh, PA

No market

Our Model

56.6%

PIT win

Kalshi

—

PIT YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: ATL -0.63 · PIT -0.90. Projected margin +2.2 for PIT (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT

NYJatTEN

Nashville, TN

No market

Our Model

54.1%

TEN win

Kalshi

—

TEN YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: NYJ -3.01 · TEN -4.11. Projected margin +1.4 for TEN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDT

TBatCIN

Cincinnati, OH

EDGE

Our Model

56.7%

CIN win

Kalshi

62¢

CIN YES

Edge

-5.3pp

model − mkt

BUY YES TB

Trade on Kalshi

Power ratings: TB -0.25 · CIN -0.48. Projected margin +2.3 for CIN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: TB 38¢ · CIN 62¢.

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT

WASatPHI

Philadelphia, PA

No market

Our Model

62.6%

PHI win

Kalshi

—

PHI YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: WAS -1.08 · PHI 0.74. Projected margin +4.3 for PHI (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT

GBatMIN

Minneapolis, MN

No market

Our Model

52.7%

MIN win

Kalshi

—

MIN YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: GB 1.41 · MIN -0.18. Projected margin +0.9 for MIN (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT

ARIatLAC

Inglewood, CA

No market

Our Model

66.2%

LAC win

Kalshi

—

LAC YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: ARI -2.73 · LAC 0.42. Projected margin +5.7 for LAC (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDT

MIAatLV

Las Vegas, NV

No market

Our Model

51.4%

LV win

Kalshi

—

LV YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: MIA -1.97 · LV -3.99. Projected margin +0.5 for LV (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM EDT

DALatNYG

East Rutherford, NJ

No market

Our Model

51.4%

NYG win

Kalshi

—

NYG YES

Edge

—

model − mkt

Market quiet — no live price

View on Kalshi →

Power ratings: DAL 0.92 · NYG -1.12. Projected margin +0.5 for NYG (HFA +2.5). Kalshi orderbook empty.

Mon, Sep 14, 9:15 PM EDT

DENatKC

Kansas City, MO

EDGE

Our Model

43.0%

KC win

Kalshi

57¢

KC YES

Edge

-13.5pp

model − mkt

BUY YES DEN @ 44¢

Trade on Kalshi

Power ratings: DEN 0.87 · KC -4.02. Projected margin -2.4 for KC (HFA +2.5). Kalshi: DEN 43¢ · KC 57¢.

Every 2026 NFL Week 1 Matchup: Our Model vs. the Kalshi Market

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks — Week 1 Prediction

The Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots at Lumen Field. Our 2026 power rating has SEA at +3.49 and NE at +3.34 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.7-point projected margin in favor of Seattle Seahawks. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 57.8% on SEA and 42.2% on NE. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams — Week 1 Prediction

The Los Angeles Rams host the San Francisco 49ers at SoFi Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has LA at +2.99 and SF at +1.01 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 4.5-point projected margin in favor of Los Angeles Rams. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 63.0% on LA and 37.0% on SF. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions — Week 1 Prediction

The Detroit Lions host the New Orleans Saints at Ford Field. Our 2026 power rating has DET at +1.17 and NO at -1.01 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 4.7-point projected margin in favor of Detroit Lions. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 63.6% on DET and 36.4% on NO. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts — Week 1 Prediction

The Indianapolis Colts host the Baltimore Ravens at Lucas Oil Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has IND at +0.74 and BAL at -0.46 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 3.7-point projected margin in favor of Indianapolis Colts. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 60.8% on IND and 39.2% on BAL. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers — Week 1 Prediction

The Carolina Panthers host the Chicago Bears at Bank of America Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has CAR at -1.08 and CHI at +0.95 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.5-point projected margin in favor of Carolina Panthers. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 51.4% on CAR and 48.6% on CHI. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans — Week 1 Prediction

The Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has HOU at +1.28 and BUF at +2.24 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 1.5-point projected margin in favor of Houston Texans. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 54.5% on HOU and 45.5% on BUF. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars — Week 1 Prediction

The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Cleveland Browns at EverBank Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has JAX at +2.71 and CLE at -2.75 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 8.0-point projected margin in favor of Jacksonville Jaguars. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 72.2% on JAX and 27.8% on CLE. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers — Week 1 Prediction

The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Atlanta Falcons at Acrisure Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has PIT at -0.90 and ATL at -0.63 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.2-point projected margin in favor of Pittsburgh Steelers. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 56.6% on PIT and 43.4% on ATL. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans — Week 1 Prediction

The Tennessee Titans host the New York Jets at Nissan Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has TEN at -4.11 and NYJ at -3.01 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 1.4-point projected margin in favor of Tennessee Titans. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 54.1% on TEN and 45.9% on NYJ. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals — Week 1 Prediction

The Cincinnati Bengals host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Paycor Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has CIN at -0.48 and TB at -0.25 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.3-point projected margin in favor of Cincinnati Bengals. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 56.7% on CIN and 43.3% on TB. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing CIN YES around 62¢ and TB YES around 38¢. That's a -5.3pp gap pricing CIN too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy TB YES.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles — Week 1 Prediction

The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field. Our 2026 power rating has PHI at +0.74 and WAS at -1.08 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 4.3-point projected margin in favor of Philadelphia Eagles. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 62.6% on PHI and 37.4% on WAS. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings — Week 1 Prediction

The Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has MIN at -0.18 and GB at +1.41 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.9-point projected margin in favor of Minnesota Vikings. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 52.7% on MIN and 47.3% on GB. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers — Week 1 Prediction

The Los Angeles Chargers host the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has LAC at +0.42 and ARI at -2.73 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 5.7-point projected margin in favor of Los Angeles Chargers. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 66.2% on LAC and 33.8% on ARI. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders — Week 1 Prediction

The Las Vegas Raiders host the Miami Dolphins at Allegiant Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has LV at -3.99 and MIA at -1.97 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.5-point projected margin in favor of Las Vegas Raiders. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 51.4% on LV and 48.6% on MIA. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants — Week 1 Prediction

The New York Giants host the Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium. Our 2026 power rating has NYG at -1.12 and DAL at +0.92 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 0.5-point projected margin in favor of New York Giants. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 51.4% on NYG and 48.6% on DAL. Kalshi has the market listed but the orderbook is still pre-trading — no live mid yet. Without a live orderbook we can't compute an edge — check back closer to kickoff.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs — Week 1 Prediction

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead. Our 2026 power rating has KC at -4.02 and DEN at +0.87 on the points-per-game scale. With the standard +2.5 home-field adjustment, that's a 2.4-point projected margin in favor of Denver Broncos. Converted through a Normal margin distribution with σ=13.5, the model lands at 43.0% on KC and 57.0% on DEN. Kalshi's prediction market is pricing KC YES around 57¢ and DEN YES around 43¢. That's a -13.5pp gap pricing KC too high — above our 5pp action floor. Buy DEN YES at 44¢.

Methodology Notes & Outliers

Kansas City is rated 31st (PR −4.02). This reflects an explicit −4.0 offensive adjustment applied to the 2026 prior for the Chiefs to account for Patrick Mahomes' health status entering the season. If that picture changes before Week 1, the rating moves substantially and so does the Denver-at-KC verdict.

Baltimore at PR −0.46 will surprise some. The 2026 preseason prior shrinks heavily toward league mean for teams coming off volatile late-season runs. By Week 4, our in-season DAEPA blend kicks in and ratings re-stratify quickly. Treat the early-season prior view as the starting point, not the final word.

σ=13.5 is locked. That's the consensus standard deviation of single-game NFL margins fit against no-vig closing moneylines across 2017–2025. Same value 538, FPI, and Massey converge on. Playoff games use σ=14.0 to match historical playoff variance.

Want the full methodology? See our Gridiron Edge model documentation — 66.5% backtested accuracy across 2003–2024 walk-forward.

More NFL Coverage

NFL Hub — power rankings & weekly edge preview
2026 Power Rankings — all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
Methodology — DAEPA, priors, win-probability conversion
Kalshi Markets Hub — live prediction-market movers
Sports Markets — NFL, NBA, soccer, World Cup 2026
Thee Oracle — multi-market signal dashboard