GROUP FMATCHDAY 1

Tunisia vs Playoff B (TBD): World Cup 2026 Prediction

2026-06-13 · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

10,000 Sim Result

39%Tunisia+156
25%Draw+300
36%Playoff B (TBD)+178
Over 2.5: NoBTTS: No

Top Value Play

Under 2.5 goals

Tunisia

Odds+30000
Advance %61.1%
Win title %0.8%

Playoff B (TBD) — TBD qualifier

Match Analysis

Tunisia and Playoff B (TBD) meet in Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-13 at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. This is one of the tighter matches in Group F. The simulation sees these teams as closely matched, with just a 3-point spread. This shapes up as a tighter, lower-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals is the lean based on defensive profiles and group stage conservative tactics. Top value play: Under 2.5 goals.

Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that's where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →

For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.