Live government shutdown probabilities — powered by Kalshi prediction markets. Auto-activates during budget deadline windows. Embed on any website in 30 seconds.
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The widget activates automatically during budget deadline windows. Currently showing monitoring state.
This widget operates in two states: active and monitoring. During budget deadline windows, it displays the live market-implied probability of a government shutdown, sourced from Kalshi binary contracts. When no deadline is imminent, it shows a monitoring state confirming the government is currently funded.
The dormant state is not filler — it is genuinely valuable context. Readers visiting your site during a quiet fiscal period get immediate confirmation that no shutdown threat is active, rather than stale data from months ago. When a new funding deadline approaches, the widget switches to active mode automatically — no code changes, no manual updates on your end.
The transition happens when Kalshi opens shutdown contracts for an upcoming deadline. Probability data flows in, the gauge activates, and your embedded widget becomes a real-time tracker without you lifting a finger.
The federal government's fiscal year begins on October 1. Before that date, Congress must pass 12 annual appropriations bills (or a continuing resolution) to fund federal agencies. When funding authority expires without replacement legislation, a “funding gap” occurs — and federal agencies begin an orderly shutdown of non-essential operations.
Since 1976, there have been 20 funding gaps that resulted in some degree of government shutdown. The frequency has increased in recent decades, with shutdowns becoming a recurring feature of budget negotiations rather than a rare crisis.
During a shutdown, roughly 800,000 federal employees are furloughed or work without pay. National parks close, passport processing slows, and some federal services are suspended. Essential services — military, law enforcement, air traffic control, Social Security payments — continue operating.
Shutdowns end when Congress passes and the President signs new funding legislation — either a full appropriations bill or a short-term continuing resolution that buys more time for negotiations. The duration is unpredictable: some shutdowns last a single day, while the longest on record stretched to 35 days(December 2018 – January 2019).
Hero (560 × 300px) — blog posts, sidebars, dashboards. Sidebar(320 × 200px) — narrow column layouts, mobile-first sites.
Grab the iframe snippet from the code boxes above. The embed is self-contained — no JavaScript, no external dependencies.
Works with WordPress (Custom HTML block), Ghost (HTML card), Substack (iframe block), Webflow (embed element), and raw HTML. No account or API key needed for free-tier usage.
For newsletters and custom integrations, pull the raw data via JSON:
{
"isActive": true,
"probability": 42,
"deadlineLabel": "FY2027 Funding Deadline",
"deadlineDate": "2026-10-01",
"daysUntil": 12,
"lastUpdated": "2026-09-19T14:30:00Z",
"source": "kalshi"
}{
"isActive": false,
"probability": null,
"deadlineLabel": null,
"deadlineDate": null,
"daysUntil": null,
"lastUpdated": "2026-04-15T12:00:00Z",
"status": "No active funding deadline — government is funded through current CR or appropriations."
}| Date | Duration | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| October 2023 | 16 days | FY2024 appropriations lapse |
| January 2018 | 3 days | DACA/immigration impasse |
| October 2013 | 16 days | ACA defunding dispute |
The US has experienced 20 funding gaps since the modern budget process began in 1976. Shutdowns have become more frequent and politically charged in recent decades.
Want the full picture?
Open Full Shutdown TrackerSee the complete shutdown probability timeline, historical context, and current funding status — with real-time Kalshi market data.
Yes. The widget is completely free for editorial and informational use. Just paste the iframe code — no account required, no API key needed for basic embeds. Commercial or high-traffic use (over 500 loads per hour) requires a Pro API key.
The widget displays a monitoring state indicating the government is currently funded. It shows the status of existing appropriations or continuing resolutions and automatically activates with live probability data when a new funding deadline approaches.
Kalshi lists binary contracts on whether a government shutdown will occur by a specific date. Traders buy YES or NO contracts — the contract price directly reflects the market-implied probability. A contract trading at $0.42 means the market assigns a 42% probability of a shutdown by that deadline.
A continuing resolution (CR) is a temporary funding measure that Congress passes when it cannot agree on full-year appropriations bills before the fiscal year deadline. CRs typically fund the government at the previous year's spending levels for a set period — weeks or months. When a CR expires without a new funding deal, that creates the next shutdown deadline.