Live NBER recession odds — powered by Kalshi prediction markets. Embed on any website in 30 seconds. No account required.
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The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of US recessions. Their Business Cycle Dating Committee evaluates a broad set of economic indicators — real GDP, employment, industrial production, and personal income — to determine when a recession begins and ends. An NBER declaration is the gold standard.
On Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, traders buy and sell binary contracts on whether the NBER will declare a recession by a specific quarter. A contract trading at $0.18 means the market assigns an 18% probability to that outcome. No conversion math required — the price is the probability.
This widget displays the headline recession probability alongside a quarterly breakdown, showing how risk is distributed across the next four quarters. The direction indicator (rising, falling, or stable) gives you instant context on how the market's view has shifted.
Why prediction markets over news headlines? Because traders have money on the line. When jobless claims spike or GDP prints negative, the probability moves within minutes — long before any economist writes a column about it. Market-implied probabilities are the fastest, most honest consensus available.
Hero (560 × 300px) — blog posts, sidebars, dashboards. Sidebar(320 × 200px) — narrow column layouts, mobile-first sites.
Grab the iframe snippet from the code boxes above. The embed is self-contained — no JavaScript, no external dependencies.
Works with WordPress (Custom HTML block), Ghost (HTML card), Substack (iframe block), Webflow (embed element), and raw HTML. No account or API key needed for free-tier usage.
For newsletters and custom integrations, pull the raw probabilities via JSON:
{
"probability": 18,
"quarters": [
{ "label": "Q2 2026", "probability": 12 },
{ "label": "Q3 2026", "probability": 18 },
{ "label": "Q4 2026", "probability": 22 },
{ "label": "Q1 2027", "probability": 25 }
],
"direction": "rising",
"snapshotAt": "2026-04-15T12:30:00Z",
"marketLabel": "NBER Recession by Q4 2026"
}Four economic indicators dominate the market's recession probability estimate:
The single strongest recession signal. The Sahm Rule triggers when the 3-month moving average rises 0.5pp above its 12-month low. Every Sahm trigger since 1970 has coincided with a recession.
When the 2-year Treasury yield exceeds the 10-year, it signals that markets expect economic weakness ahead. The yield curve has inverted before every US recession since 1955, with a typical lead time of 12–18 months.
A reading below 50 indicates manufacturing contraction. Sustained readings below 45 have historically aligned with recession periods. Released on the first business day of each month.
Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth is the popular shorthand for recession, though the NBER uses a broader assessment. The advance GDP estimate is released ~30 days after quarter end.
Want the full picture?
Open Full Recession TrackerSee the full quarterly breakdown, historical recession data, and each economic indicator's impact on NBER recession probabilities.
Yes. The widget is completely free for editorial and informational use. Just paste the iframe code — no account required, no API key needed for basic embeds. Commercial or high-traffic use (over 500 loads per hour) requires a Pro API key.
Kalshi market data is polled every 15 minutes. The widget itself caches at CDN level for 15 minutes, so the displayed probabilities are always within 15 minutes of the live market price.
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee officially declares recessions based on a broad assessment of economic activity — including real GDP, employment, industrial production, and income. Kalshi contracts settle based on the NBER's official determination, not GDP alone.
Kalshi lists separate contracts for recession starting by Q2 2026, Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027. Each contract price represents the market's probability of an NBER-declared recession beginning by that quarter. The widget aggregates these into a timeline so you can see how risk is distributed across time.