Live CPI inflation bracket probabilities — powered by Kalshi prediction markets. Embed on any website in 30 seconds. No account required.
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most widely watched inflation gauge in the United States. Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI year-over-year measures how fast prices are rising across the economy — from groceries and gas to rent and healthcare.
On Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, traders buy and sell binary contracts on CPI bracket outcomes. Each bracket represents a range (e.g., 2.5–3.0% YoY), and the contract price directly equals the market-implied probability that CPI will land in that range. No conversion math required.
This widget aggregates those bracket prices into a visual distribution: the implied median shows the market's central estimate, the Fed 2% target line marks the central bank's objective, and heat colors shift from green (below target) through orange to red (well above target) so you can instantly read inflationary pressure.
Why prediction markets over survey-based forecasts? Because traders have money on the line. When a hot CPI print drops at 8:30 AM ET, bracket prices reprice within minutes — long before any economist revises their model. Market-implied probabilities are the fastest, most honest consensus available.
Fed 2% target line— The vertical marker shows the Federal Reserve's long-run inflation objective. When most bars sit to the right of this line, the market expects inflation to remain above the Fed's comfort zone.
Bar colors — Brackets below or near the 2% target appear in green, signaling benign inflation. As brackets move higher, colors shift to orange and red, indicating elevated or hot inflation expectations.
Distribution width — A wide, flat distribution means the market is uncertain about where CPI will land. A narrow, peaked distribution means strong consensus. Watch for the distribution to widen ahead of major data releases and narrow afterward.
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Grab the iframe snippet from the code boxes above. The embed is self-contained — no JavaScript, no external dependencies.
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For newsletters and custom integrations, pull the raw probabilities via JSON:
{
"impliedMedian": "3.2%",
"probAbove2pct": 88,
"probAbove4pct": 12,
"nextPrintLabel": "May 2026 CPI",
"distribution": [
{ "bracket": "< 2.0%", "probability": 4 },
{ "bracket": "2.0–2.5%", "probability": 8 },
{ "bracket": "2.5–3.0%", "probability": 22 },
{ "bracket": "3.0–3.5%", "probability": 34 },
{ "bracket": "3.5–4.0%", "probability": 20 },
{ "bracket": "> 4.0%", "probability": 12 }
]
}Four forces dominate the CPI probability distribution and drive the biggest bracket repricing events:
Import tariffs flow directly into consumer prices. A broad tariff hike can shift the distribution 3–5pp toward higher brackets within days of announcement, as markets price in pass-through effects on goods.
Shelter is the largest CPI component (~36% weight). Owners' equivalent rent (OER) and rent of primary residence are slow-moving but powerful. A 0.1% surprise in shelter alone can move CPI by 0.04% MoM.
Gasoline and energy are the most volatile CPI components. A $10/bbl move in crude oil can swing headline CPI by 0.2–0.3% YoY. Watch the distribution widen when oil is volatile.
Core services ex-shelter (insurance, medical care, transportation) is the Fed's stickiest inflation worry. Elevated services inflation keeps the right tail of the distribution fat, supporting higher-bracket probabilities even when goods disinflation arrives.
Want the full picture?
Open Full Inflation TrackerSee the complete CPI bracket distribution, historical prints, implied median trend, and how each economic release shifts the probability curve.
The widget displays the market-implied probability distribution for upcoming CPI year-over-year inflation prints. Each bar represents a bracket (e.g., 2.5-3.0%) and shows the probability that CPI will land in that range, based on Kalshi prediction market prices. The implied median and Fed 2% target line provide quick reference points.
The Federal Reserve targets 2% annual inflation as its long-run goal. The target line on the widget marks this threshold so you can instantly see how much of the probability distribution sits above or below the Fed's objective. When most probability mass is above 2%, the market expects inflation to remain elevated.
Kalshi market data is polled every 15 minutes. The widget caches at CDN level for 15 minutes, so displayed probabilities are always within 15 minutes of live market prices. The distribution shifts noticeably after major data releases like CPI, PCE, and PPI prints.
Yes. The widget is completely free for editorial and informational use. Just paste the iframe code — no account required, no API key needed for basic embeds. Commercial or high-traffic use (over 500 loads per hour) requires a Pro API key.