Live Federal Reserve rate probabilities — powered by Kalshi prediction markets. Embed on any website in 30 seconds. No account required.
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/fed-rate-tracker/hero" width="560" height="300" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="max-width:100%; border:none;" title="FOMC Rate Decision Tracker" ></iframe>
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/fed-rate-tracker/sidebar" width="320" height="200" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="max-width:100%; border:none;" title="FOMC Rate Decision Tracker" ></iframe>
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to decide whether to cut, hold, or raise the federal funds rate — the benchmark interest rate that influences everything from mortgage rates to stock valuations. Each decision moves trillions of dollars.
On Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange, traders buy and sell binary contracts on each possible FOMC outcome. A contract trading at $0.68 means the market assigns a 68% probability to that outcome. No conversion math required — the price is the probability.
This widget aggregates those contract prices into a single probability bar: the combined market-implied probability of a rate cut (combining 25bp and 50bp cut contracts), hold, or hike. The countdown shows days until the next FOMC decision, and the timeline displays the full upcoming meeting schedule with the dominant signal for each.
Why prediction markets over news headlines? Because traders have money on the line. When Core CPI prints hot, the probability of a cut drops within minutes — long before any analyst writes a column about it. Market-implied probabilities are the fastest, most honest consensus available.
Hero (560 × 300px) — blog posts, sidebars, dashboards. Sidebar(320 × 200px) — narrow column layouts, mobile-first sites.
Grab the iframe snippet from the code boxes above. The embed is self-contained — no JavaScript, no external dependencies.
Works with WordPress (Custom HTML block), Ghost (HTML card), Substack (iframe block), Webflow (embed element), and raw HTML. No account or API key needed for free-tier usage.
For newsletters and custom integrations, pull the raw probabilities via JSON:
{
"nextMeeting": {
"label": "May 6–7, 2026",
"date": "2026-05-07",
"daysUntil": 22,
"slug": "may-2026"
},
"currentRate": "4.25–4.50%",
"probabilities": {
"cut": 68,
"hold": 28,
"hike": 4,
"dominantSignal": "cut",
"snapshotAt": "2026-04-15T12:30:00Z"
}
}| Meeting | Date | Days Until | Market Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28–29 | 2026-01-29 | — | — |
| Mar 18–19 | 2026-03-19 | — | — |
| May 6–7 | 2026-05-07 | 17 | — |
| Jun 17–18 | 2026-06-18 | 59 | — |
| Jul 29–30 | 2026-07-30 | 101 | — |
| Sep 16–17 | 2026-09-17 | 150 | — |
| Oct 28–29 | 2026-10-29 | 192 | — |
| Dec 9–10 | 2026-12-10 | 234 | — |
The current federal funds rate target is 3.64%. Four economic indicators dominate the probability distribution ahead of each FOMC meeting:
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge after PCE. A single hot print can shift cut probabilities by 6–10pp. Released around the 12th of each month at 8:30 AM ET.
The FOMC's “true north” — the official preferred inflation measure. Released ~30 days after month end. Typical impact: +/- 5–8pp on cut probability.
The headline jobs number, released the first Friday of each month. A blowout print signals the economy can handle higher rates, reducing cut odds by 4–8pp.
Rising unemployment is the primary trigger for emergency cuts. The Fed's dual mandate means they must respond. Typical impact: +/- 3–6pp on cut probability.
Want the full picture?
Open Full Fed Rate TrackerSee all 8 FOMC meetings, the Bayesian update history, and each economic indicator's historical impact on rate probabilities.
Yes. The widget is completely free for editorial and informational use. Just paste the iframe code — no account required, no API key needed for basic embeds. Commercial or high-traffic use (over 500 loads per hour) requires a Pro API key.
Kalshi market data is polled every 15 minutes. The widget itself caches at CDN level for 15 minutes, so the displayed probabilities are always within 15 minutes of the live market price.
All probability data comes from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange. Kalshi traders buy and sell binary contracts on FOMC rate decisions — the contract prices directly represent the market's probability estimate.
iframes are not supported in most email clients. For newsletters, use the JSON API endpoint to pull the current probabilities and format them in your email template. The API is free for editorial use at predictionmarketspicks.com/api/public/fed-rate-tracker.
CME FedWatch uses federal funds futures pricing, which requires interest rate math to convert to probabilities. Kalshi prediction market contracts are binary — the price directly equals the probability. This tracker uses Kalshi prices, making the probability interpretation direct and transparent.