Manufacturing Employment — Impact on Fed Rate Prediction Markets
Manufacturing employment is a leading indicator of industrial health. Sustained contraction often precedes broader economic weakness and increased Fed dovishness.
+/-
per 1σ surprise
↑ Hawkish
when high vs consensus
Pre-calibration
data points
Release Schedule
Frequency
Monthly
Release time
8:30 AM ET
Delay
First Friday of the following month
FRED series
MANEMP
Historical Releases
Data populates automatically once the FRED ingest pipeline is running.
How Manufacturing Employment Moves Fed Rate Prediction Markets
All Employees in Manufacturing — a proxy for goods-sector labor strength.
Manufacturing employment is a leading indicator of industrial health. Sustained contraction often precedes broader economic weakness and increased Fed dovishness.
The Bayesian Sensitivity Model
The model calibrates a sensitivity coefficient for each indicator: how many percentage points the cut probability at the next FOMC meeting moves per standard deviation of surprise. For Mfg Employment, the preliminary coefficient is ±+/- 2–4pp on cut probability. This means ifMfg Employment comes in 1 standard deviation above consensus (hawkish surprise), the model reduces cut probability by approximately +/- 2–4pp on cut probability.
These coefficients are preliminary until calibrated from at least 20 historical observations of Kalshi price reactions to each release. The calibration uses a regression of (surprise_zscore × sensitivity_coefficient) against observed Kalshi probability changes, cross-validated against CME FedWatch data going back to 2015.
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