CPI (All Items) — Impact on Fed Rate Prediction Markets
Headline inflation captures the full cost-of-living picture. Spikes in food and energy can temporarily distort readings, but sustained headline strength pressures the Fed.
+/-
per 1σ surprise
↑ Hawkish
when high vs consensus
Pre-calibration
data points
Release Schedule
Frequency
Monthly
Release time
8:30 AM ET
Delay
~12 days after month end
FRED series
CPIAUCSL
Historical Releases
Data populates automatically once the FRED ingest pipeline is running.
How CPI (All Items) Moves Fed Rate Prediction Markets
Headline Consumer Price Index — all items including food and energy.
Headline inflation captures the full cost-of-living picture. Spikes in food and energy can temporarily distort readings, but sustained headline strength pressures the Fed.
The Bayesian Sensitivity Model
The model calibrates a sensitivity coefficient for each indicator: how many percentage points the cut probability at the next FOMC meeting moves per standard deviation of surprise. For CPI, the preliminary coefficient is ±+/- 5–9pp on cut probability. This means ifCPI comes in 1 standard deviation above consensus (hawkish surprise), the model reduces cut probability by approximately +/- 5–9pp on cut probability.
These coefficients are preliminary until calibrated from at least 20 historical observations of Kalshi price reactions to each release. The calibration uses a regression of (surprise_zscore × sensitivity_coefficient) against observed Kalshi probability changes, cross-validated against CME FedWatch data going back to 2015.
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