2026 Fantasy Draft Board — Where Our Model Disagrees With ADP
Every fantasy-relevant skill player, projected by a 1,000-season Monte Carlo simulation and ranked against consensus Average Draft Position. The gaps are the whole point: sleepers the room is letting slide and busts going off the board too early. Half-PPR. No account, no email.
Top Sleepers to Target
- Jauan JenningsWR39 · MIN · ADP 159
- Jakobi MeyersWR31 · JAX · ADP 115
- Rashid ShaheedWR40 · SEA · ADP 150
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR8 · SEA · ADP 55
- Amon-Ra St. BrownWR9 · DET · ADP 56
Top Busts to Fade
- Luther Burden IIIWR50 · CHI · ADP 73
- Michael WilsonWR34 · ARI · ADP 38
- Mike EvansWR49 · SF · ADP 80
- KC ConcepcionWR33 · CLE · ADP 45
- Antonio WilliamsWR77 · WAS · ADP 179
| Player | Pos | Team | Our Rank | Consensus ADP | vs ADP | Call | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | WR8 | 55 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 281.9 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | WR9 | 56 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 285.4 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | WR10 | 58 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 255.3 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | WR13 | 64 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 243.8 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | WR14 | 67 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 251.6 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | WR17 | 68 | +9 | Strong Sleeper | 200.4 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | WR21 | 26 | -10 | Strong Bust | 165.9 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | WR23 | 37 | -8 | Strong Bust | 166.2 |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | WR24 | 27 | -12 | Strong Bust | 156.7 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | WR25 | 88 | +10 | Sleeper | 191.0 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | WR27 | 32 | -13 | Strong Bust | 151.9 |
| Blake Corum | RB | LAR | RB28 | 51 | -12 | Strong Bust | 84.4 |
| Jayden Reed | WR | GB | WR30 | 39 | -13 | Strong Bust | 149.3 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE | NYJ | TE30 | 151 | -11 | Bust Risk | 71.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | WR31 | 115 | +14 | Sleeper | 201.7 |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | WR33 | 45 | -15 | Strong Bust | 143.8 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | WR34 | 38 | -18 | Strong Bust | 142.7 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | WR38 | 120 | +9 | Strong Sleeper | 186.2 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | MIN | WR39 | 159 | +17 | Sleeper | 200.5 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | WR40 | 150 | +14 | Sleeper | 195.7 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | WR44 | 94 | -6 | Bust Risk | 155.5 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | WR49 | 80 | -17 | Bust Risk | 133.0 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | WR50 | 73 | -21 | Bust Risk | 122.4 |
| Jordyn Tyson | WR | NO | WR51 | 93 | -14 | Strong Bust | 128.5 |
| Makai Lemon | WR | PHI | WR52 | 105 | -11 | Bust Risk | 134.5 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | RB53 | 157 | -9 | Bust Risk | 65.9 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | WR60 | 141 | -8 | Bust Risk | 115.1 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | WR62 | 130 | -13 | Bust Risk | 109.0 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | LV | WR69 | 168 | -11 | Bust Risk | 99.3 |
| Antonio Williams | WR | WAS | WR77 | 179 | -15 | Strong Bust | 83.7 |
30 players
Our Rank — our model's positional rank · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · vs ADP — positional slots our model disagrees with consensus (positive = we're higher = sleeper). Projections answer “what does he produce if he plays?”, so they assume a full slate and leave availability risk to you.
How the board is built
Most rankings are one analyst's ordering. This is a simulation. We run 1,000 seasons for every skill player on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency, and a schedule-aware matchup adjustment — then anchor the output to consensus ADP per position so the board stays grounded in the market rather than swinging on model noise.
What you see here is the residual: the players our projections put a round or two away from where the field is taking them. We publish our number and the market's number side by side and let you read the gap yourself.
The same board runs inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor as a draft assistant — ask it for the best available at your pick with the players already gone removed, or have it compare two players in your scoring format mid-draft. See the draft assistant →
Draft with the whole board, not a slice
The free board caps how deep each list goes. Pro removes the caps and adds the part that actually decides a pick: boom and bust rates on every player, where the next positional tier break falls, and the reasoning behind each alternative when you ask who to take.
- · Uncapped draft board, best-available and sleeper lists
- · Boom % and bust % on every row
- · Tier breaks — where the position falls off after your pick
- · Reasoning on each alternative at your pick, not just an ordering
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Frequently Asked Questions
What makes a player a sleeper on this board?
We project every skill player with a 1,000-season Monte Carlo simulation built on Defense-Adjusted EPA, multi-year usage and efficiency, then compare that projected positional rank to consensus Average Draft Position. A sleeper is a player our model ranks meaningfully higher than the draft room does. A bust is one it ranks lower. The gap itself is the signal — it is shown in the "vs ADP" column.
Which scoring format is the board in?
The board on this page is Half-PPR. Standard and full-PPR boards are generated from the same projections and are available through the draft assistant, which takes your league's scoring as an input.
How often does it update?
The projections are refreshed through the off-season as depth charts and consensus ADP move, and the page rebuilds on a 30-minute cycle. During draft season the ADP side moves fastest — a player can slide two rounds in a week after a camp report.
Is the draft board free?
Yes, completely. The board on this page is free with no email gate, and as of September 2026 so is the whole thing inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor — every list-shaped draft tool returns its full result with no key, no email and no signup. Pro adds the judgment on top (boom and bust week odds, positional tier breaks, the reasoning behind each call), never more rows.
What does a Pro subscription add for drafting?
Pro removes the depth caps on every draft list and adds the judgment layer: boom and bust percentages on each player, where the next positional tier break falls, and the reasoning behind each alternative when you ask who to draft at your pick. Floor and ceiling projections are free on every row and stay free.
Fantasy projections for research and entertainment. Not affiliated with the NFL or any fantasy platform.