2026 Fantasy Draft Board — Where Our Model Disagrees With ADP
Every fantasy-relevant skill player, projected by a 1,000-season Monte Carlo simulation and ranked against consensus Average Draft Position. The gaps are the whole point: sleepers the room is letting slide and busts going off the board too early. Half-PPR. No account, no email.
Top Sleepers to Target
- Jauan JenningsWR42 · MIN · ADP 153
- Wan'Dale RobinsonWR28 · TEN · ADP 98
- Brian Thomas Jr.WR23 · JAX · ADP 72
- Jakobi MeyersWR27 · JAX · ADP 88
- DK MetcalfWR21 · PIT · ADP 66
Top Busts to Fade
- Deebo Samuel Sr.WR64 · SF · ADP 111
- Garrett WilsonWR33 · NYJ · ADP 31
- Luther Burden IIIWR44 · CHI · ADP 61
- TreVeyon HendersonRB38 · NE · ADP 65
- Matthew GoldenWR58 · GB · ADP 109
| Player | Pos | Team | Our Rank | Consensus ADP | vs ADP | Call | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | WR21 | 66 | +8 | Sleeper | 192.5 |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | WR22 | 20 | -12 | Bust Risk | 153.0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | WR23 | 72 | +9 | Sleeper | 194.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | WR27 | 88 | +9 | Sleeper | 192.9 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | MIA | RB27 | 53 | -8 | Strong Bust | 86.4 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | WR28 | 98 | +12 | Sleeper | 195.1 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | WR29 | 89 | +8 | Sleeper | 190.6 |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | WR32 | 47 | -10 | Bust Risk | 152.8 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | WR33 | 31 | -17 | Bust Risk | 139.9 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | WR37 | 112 | +8 | Sleeper | 185.1 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | RB38 | 65 | -15 | Bust Risk | 53.6 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | WR39 | 55 | -14 | Bust Risk | 144.2 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | MIN | WR42 | 153 | +13 | Sleeper | 200.8 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | WR44 | 61 | -16 | Bust Risk | 134.6 |
| Emmett Johnson | RB | KC | RB49 | 160 | -11 | Strong Bust | 56.9 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | RB | LV | RB51 | 169 | -12 | Bust Risk | 55.7 |
| Kaelon Black | RB | SF | RB52 | 173 | -11 | Strong Bust | 56.5 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | SEA | WR53 | 178 | +8 | Sleeper | 157.1 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | WR57 | 122 | -9 | Bust Risk | 121.3 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | WR58 | 109 | -15 | Bust Risk | 112.2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | SF | WR64 | 111 | -20 | Strong Bust | 97.2 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | LV | WR66 | 157 | -9 | Bust Risk | 111.6 |
| Tank Dell | WR | HOU | WR69 | 172 | -9 | Strong Bust | 110.6 |
23 players
Our Rank — our model's positional rank · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · vs ADP — positional slots our model disagrees with consensus (positive = we're higher = sleeper). Projections answer “what does he produce if he plays?”, so they assume a full slate and leave availability risk to you.
How the board is built
Most rankings are one analyst's ordering. This is a simulation. We run 1,000 seasons for every skill player on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency, and a schedule-aware matchup adjustment — then anchor the output to consensus ADP per position so the board stays grounded in the market rather than swinging on model noise.
What you see here is the residual: the players our projections put a round or two away from where the field is taking them. We publish our number and the market's number side by side and let you read the gap yourself.
The same board runs inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor as a draft assistant — ask it for the best available at your pick with the players already gone removed, or have it compare two players in your scoring format mid-draft. See the draft assistant →
Draft with the whole board, not a slice
The free board caps how deep each list goes. Pro removes the caps and adds the part that actually decides a pick: boom and bust rates on every player, where the next positional tier break falls, and the reasoning behind each alternative when you ask who to take.
- · Uncapped draft board, best-available and sleeper lists
- · Boom % and bust % on every row
- · Tier breaks — where the position falls off after your pick
- · Reasoning on each alternative at your pick, not just an ordering
- · Every quant tool on the site, in and out of football season
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2026 fantasy draft board — frequently asked
What makes a player a sleeper on this board?
We project every skill player with a 1,000-season Monte Carlo simulation built on Defense-Adjusted EPA, multi-year usage and efficiency, then compare that projected positional rank to consensus Average Draft Position. A sleeper is a player our model ranks meaningfully higher than the draft room does. A bust is one it ranks lower. The gap itself is the signal — it is shown in the "vs ADP" column.
Which scoring format is the board in?
The board on this page is Half-PPR. Standard and full-PPR boards are generated from the same projections and are available through the draft assistant, which takes your league's scoring as an input.
How often does it update?
The projections are refreshed through the off-season as depth charts and consensus ADP move, and the page rebuilds on a 30-minute cycle. During draft season the ADP side moves fastest — a player can slide two rounds in a week after a camp report.
Is the draft board free?
Yes, completely. The board on this page is free with no email gate, and as of September 2026 so is the whole thing inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor — every list-shaped draft tool returns its full result with no key, no email and no signup. Pro adds the judgment on top (boom and bust week odds, positional tier breaks, the reasoning behind each call), never more rows.
What does a Pro subscription add for drafting?
Pro removes the depth caps on every draft list and adds the judgment layer: boom and bust percentages on each player, where the next positional tier break falls, and the reasoning behind each alternative when you ask who to draft at your pick. Floor and ceiling projections are free on every row and stay free.
Fantasy projections for research and entertainment. Not affiliated with the NFL or any fantasy platform.