2026 Fantasy Draft Board — Where Our Model Disagrees With ADP
Every fantasy-relevant skill player, projected by a 1,000-season Monte Carlo simulation and ranked against consensus Average Draft Position. The gaps are the whole point: sleepers the room is letting slide and busts going off the board too early. Half-PPR. No account, no email.
Top Sleepers to Target
- Jauan JenningsWR47 · MIN · ADP 146
- Rashid ShaheedWR34 · SEA · ADP 120
- Cooper KuppWR54 · SEA · ADP 172
- Khalil ShakirWR36 · BUF · ADP 110
- Josh DownsWR37 · IND · ADP 108
Top Busts to Fade
- Antonio WilliamsWR91 · WAS · ADP 165
- Jalen NailorWR81 · LV · ADP 144
- Bhayshul TutenRB33 · JAX · ADP 55
- Luther Burden IIIWR45 · CHI · ADP 52
- Matthew GoldenWR70 · GB · ADP 112
| Player | Pos | Team | Our Rank | Consensus ADP | vs ADP | Call | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | WR21 | 79 | +27 | Sleeper | 226.2 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | TE22 | 149 | -25 | Bust Risk | 77.6 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | WR22 | 78 | +22 | Sleeper | 211.3 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | WR23 | 56 | +2 | Bust Risk | 180.9 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | WR24 | 23 | -34 | Bust Risk | 148.0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | WR29 | 37 | -29 | Bust Risk | 144.2 |
| Michael Pittman | WR | PIT | WR30 | 80 | +14 | Sleeper | 181.9 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | RB33 | 55 | -46 | Bust Risk | 77.5 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | WR34 | 120 | +43 | Sleeper | 225.5 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | WR36 | 110 | +33 | Sleeper | 199.5 |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | WR37 | 108 | +29 | Sleeper | 191.0 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | WR39 | 61 | -20 | Bust Risk | 141.5 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | WR45 | 52 | -39 | Bust Risk | 109.8 |
| Blake Corum | RB | LAR | RB46 | 117 | -30 | Bust Risk | 77.9 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | MIN | WR47 | 146 | +44 | Strong Sleeper | 194.5 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | ARI | WR48 | 68 | -27 | Bust Risk | 117.5 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | WR49 | 87 | -10 | Bust Risk | 130.0 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | WR53 | 90 | -21 | Bust Risk | 109.9 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | SEA | WR54 | 172 | +34 | Strong Sleeper | 163.7 |
| Tank Dell | WR | HOU | WR61 | 180 | +17 | Sleeper | 127.0 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | TEN | WR68 | 124 | -28 | Strong Bust | 102.4 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | WR69 | 125 | -26 | Bust Risk | 102.8 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | WR70 | 112 | -35 | Bust Risk | 95.6 |
| John Metchie III | WR | CAR | WR71 | 119 | -33 | Strong Bust | 95.7 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | LV | WR81 | 144 | -47 | Bust Risk | 81.2 |
| Antonio Williams | WR | WAS | WR91 | 165 | -64 | Strong Bust | 72.9 |
26 players
Our Rank — our model's positional rank · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · vs ADP — positional slots our model disagrees with consensus (positive = we're higher = sleeper). Projections answer “what does he produce if he plays?”, so they assume a full slate and leave availability risk to you.
How the board is built
Most rankings are one analyst's ordering. This is a simulation. We run 1,000 seasons for every skill player on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency, and a schedule-aware matchup adjustment — then anchor the output to consensus ADP per position so the board stays grounded in the market rather than swinging on model noise.
What you see here is the residual: the players our projections put a round or two away from where the field is taking them. We publish our number and the market's number side by side and let you read the gap yourself.
The same board runs inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor as a draft assistant — ask it for the best available at your pick with the players already gone removed, or have it compare two players in your scoring format mid-draft. See the draft assistant →
Draft with the whole board, not a slice
The free board caps how deep each list goes. Pro removes the caps and adds the part that actually decides a pick: boom and bust rates on every player, where the next positional tier break falls, and the reasoning behind each alternative when you ask who to take.
- · Uncapped draft board, best-available and sleeper lists
- · Boom % and bust % on every row
- · Tier breaks — where the position falls off after your pick
- · Reasoning on each alternative at your pick, not just an ordering
- · Every quant tool on the site, in and out of football season
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Frequently Asked Questions
What makes a player a sleeper on this board?
We project every skill player with a 1,000-season Monte Carlo simulation built on Defense-Adjusted EPA, multi-year usage and efficiency, then compare that projected positional rank to consensus Average Draft Position. A sleeper is a player our model ranks meaningfully higher than the draft room does. A bust is one it ranks lower. The gap itself is the signal — it is shown in the "vs ADP" column.
Which scoring format is the board in?
The board on this page is Half-PPR. Standard and full-PPR boards are generated from the same projections and are available through the draft assistant, which takes your league's scoring as an input.
How often does it update?
The projections are refreshed through the off-season as depth charts and consensus ADP move, and the page rebuilds on a 30-minute cycle. During draft season the ADP side moves fastest — a player can slide two rounds in a week after a camp report.
Is the draft board free?
Yes. The board on this page is free and has no email gate. The same projections are also available inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor through our draft assistant, where the free tier returns a capped slice of each list and a free key deepens it.
What does a Pro subscription add for drafting?
Pro removes the depth caps on every draft list and adds the judgment layer: boom and bust percentages on each player, where the next positional tier break falls, and the reasoning behind each alternative when you ask who to draft at your pick. Floor and ceiling projections are free on every row and stay free.
Fantasy projections for research and entertainment. Not affiliated with the NFL or any fantasy platform.