{"name":"Gridiron Edge Calibration Ledger","model":"DAEPA (Drive-Adjusted Expected Points Added)","publisher":"PredictionMarketsPicks","license":"Free to use with attribution to predictionmarketspicks.com","source":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/calibration","methodology":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/about","sample":{"games":3266,"seasons":"2013–2024","walkForward":true},"overall":{"straightUpPct":59.6,"brier":0.236,"logLoss":0.664,"seasonWinMae":2.32},"confidenceGradient":[{"bucket":"Toss-up (under 5%)","games":870,"straightUpPct":51.6},{"bucket":"Lean (5–10%)","games":797,"straightUpPct":57.2},{"bucket":"Solid (10–20%)","games":1114,"straightUpPct":62.5},{"bucket":"Strong (over 20%)","games":485,"straightUpPct":71.5}]}