# World Cup Thursday: The 7 Oracles' Best Plays for the June 25 Slate *By Benny Ricciardi, FSWA Award Winner · Published Author · Ran 4Deep Sports · Led FTN Marketing · Traded Bonds on Wall Street — The 7 Oracles at PredictionMarketsPicks* Groups D, E and F close the group stage, and three sides are already through, so half the board is dead chalk and the other half is a knockout. The marquee name is the USA in primetime at SoFi — but the cleanest edge is Japan–Sweden, where the board prices the points and the model prices the more talented side that has to win. The full June 25 card from The 7 Oracles at PredictionMarketsPicks. - Source: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/world-cup-2026-thursday-june-25-best-plays - Published: 2026-06-25 - Updated: 2026-06-25 --- **Thursday closes three groups, and the best number on the board is the one where the market is still paying for the standings instead of the squad.** [Groups D, E and F](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups) play their final round, and the table splits them cleanly: the [USA](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/usa), [Germany](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/germany) and the [Netherlands](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/netherlands) have already qualified and will rotate, while [Türkiye](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/turkiye) and [Tunisia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/tunisia) are mathematically out. That leaves the survivors — [Sweden](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/sweden), [Paraguay](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/paraguay), [Ecuador](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/ecuador), [Côte d'Ivoire](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/cote-divoire) — chasing, and a chasing side priced like an afterthought is exactly the kind of number The 7 Oracles like to take. The headline belongs to the host, but the marquee name and the marquee edge aren't the same game. Here's the full card. Live [World Cup 2026 champion odds](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026) — top contenders by market-implied probability. Full board on the [odds page](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/odds). ### The Thursday card | Game (ET) | The position | The value angle | |---|---|---| | **Germany vs. Ecuador** · 4:00 PM · MetLife | **Wirtz or Havertz anytime / Germany team total** | Through-and-rotating chalk — buy the goals, not the moneyline | | **Côte d'Ivoire vs. Curaçao** · 4:00 PM · Philadelphia | **Côte d'Ivoire -1.5 / Amad Diallo anytime** | Win-and-in; the margin and the scorer over the moneyline | | **Netherlands vs. Tunisia** · 7:00 PM · Kansas City | **Netherlands -1.5 / Depay anytime** | 88¢ chalk on a rested side — don't lay it, play the goals | | **Japan vs. Sweden** · 7:00 PM · Dallas | **Sweden double chance / Gyökeres anytime** | THE EDGE: the board prices the points, the model prices Sweden | | **USA vs. Türkiye** · 10:00 PM · SoFi | **Balogun anytime / Pulisic anytime** | Host primetime; USA through and resting — scorers over the price | | **Australia vs. Paraguay** · 10:00 PM · Santa Clara | **Under 2.5 / Paraguay to win** | Knockout nightcap; the board over-weights the draw | **★ Marquee read:** [USA vs. Türkiye](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/usa-vs-turkiye). The host nation closes the group in primetime, but it's already won — six points, plus-five, and Türkiye eliminated — so the model has the USA at **50% (+101)**, right on top of the board's **53¢**. A qualified team that already rested Pulisic at halftime in the opener isn't a moneyline to lay; it's a stage for the scorers. The position is **Balogun anytime** with a Pulisic anytime/assist, not the spread. [See today's full card →](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/picks-today) ### Where the market is wrong The headline is the USA, but the edge is one game earlier in the evening. [Japan–Sweden](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/japan-vs-sweden) is where the board and the model split hardest: the price leans on Japan's four points and unbeaten run, while the model only sees what's on the field — Sweden's Isak-and-Gyökeres front line, six goals already scored, and a must-win against a Japan side that needs only a draw and will protect it. Points and the table on one side, the better roster and the desperation on the other. The USA, Germany, Côte d'Ivoire and Netherlands favorites are priced about right, so the value in those games is the scorers and the margin, not the moneylines. The [Australia–Paraguay](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/australia-vs-paraguay) nightcap is the secondary read: a straight eliminator where the board has built the draw into the favorite, even though the side that has to win is the more technical one. ### USA vs. Türkiye — the host, primetime, and a side that's already through The showcase, and the table takes the pressure off. The [USA](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/usa) opened with a 4-1 over Paraguay on a Folarin Balogun debut brace and followed it with a 2-0 over Australia, so they arrive on six points, plus-five, with the group won; [Türkiye](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/turkiye) lost both — 0-2 to Australia, 0-1 to Paraguay — and are out. The model reads the USA at **50% (+101)**, the draw at **22% (+352)** and a live Türkiye at **28% (+255)** — almost exactly the board's number, which tells you the moneyline isn't the play. A qualified host will rotate and manage minutes, so the read isn't the spread; it's the storyline attached: **Balogun anytime** as the lead striker in form, a **Pulisic anytime/assist** if he starts, and a Türkiye side with real quality up top — Kenan Yıldız, Çalhanoğlu, Güler — that will play freely with the pressure gone. Both-teams-to-score is the live secondary in a game neither team has a reason to lock down. Live board for [USA vs. Türkiye](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/usa-vs-turkiye) ([Group D](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups)). Team pages: [USA](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/usa) · [Türkiye](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/turkiye). *Model: USA 50% / draw 22% / Türkiye 28% · lean Over 2.5 · both-teams-to-score live · scorers over the moneyline.* ### Germany vs. Ecuador — buy the goals, not the lay [Germany](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/germany) are through and top the group — six points, plus-seven — after a 7-1 of Curaçao and a 2-1 over Côte d'Ivoire. [Ecuador](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/ecuador) have one point and, the number that matters, zero goals in two games: beaten 1-0 by the Ivorians and held 0-0 by Curaçao. The model makes Germany **50% (+102)** to Ecuador's 25%, draw 25% — a touch under the board's 54¢ because a qualified Germany rotates, and the total is closer to a coin flip than the names imply once the Germans empty the bench. So the value isn't the moneyline and it isn't a blanket Over; it's the German front line finding the net in a game Ecuador have shown no way of chasing: **Wirtz or Havertz anytime** is the position, a Musiala anytime the second price, and the Havertz-and-Wirtz both-to-score the longer ticket if you want it. Enner Valencia — penalties, set pieces — is Ecuador's one scorer's price the other way. Live board for [Germany vs. Ecuador](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/germany-vs-ecuador) ([Group E](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups)). Team pages: [Germany](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/germany) · [Ecuador](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/ecuador). *Model: Germany 50% / draw 25% / Ecuador 25% · total a coin flip · a German scorer over the moneyline.* ### Côte d'Ivoire vs. Curaçao — win-and-in, so back the side, not the price The Ivorians control their own ticket: three points, level on goal difference, and a win over winless [Curaçao](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/curacao) sends them through in second behind Germany. Curaçao have a single point — a 0-0 with Ecuador after the 7-1 from Germany — and the tournament's smallest nation is playing for pride. The model makes [Côte d'Ivoire](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/cote-divoire) **77% (-342)**, a hair under the board's 84¢, because two low-block sides in a tight, high-stakes game produce a grind more than a rout — the model's Over 2.5 is only a coin flip and both-teams-to-score sits under 30%. The favorite is priced about right, so the value is the margin and the scorer: **Amad Diallo anytime** — he came off the bench to win the opener in the 90th minute and is the most dangerous man on the field — with Nicolas Pépé the second price and a **Côte d'Ivoire -1.5** the number off the moneyline. The Under is the structural lean. Live board for [Côte d'Ivoire vs. Curaçao](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/cote-divoire-vs-curacao) ([Group E](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups)). Team pages: [Côte d'Ivoire](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/cote-divoire) · [Curaçao](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/curacao). *Model: Côte d'Ivoire 77% / draw 17% / Curaçao 6% · lean Under 2.5 · Amad Diallo anytime.* ### Netherlands vs. Tunisia — don't lay 88¢ on a side that's resting The most lopsided price on the slate, and the moneyline is a tax. The [Netherlands](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/netherlands) sit top of Group F — four points, plus-four — after a 2-2 with Japan and a 5-1 dismantling of Sweden; [Tunisia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/tunisia) are out, beaten 5-1 and 4-0 and minus-eight. The board makes the Dutch **88¢**, around -730, but the model reads them at **72% (-251)**, and the gap is the tell: a qualified Netherlands will rotate, and that steep a price on a rested side against a team with nothing to play for is a number to play through, not to lay. The value is the goals — **Netherlands -1.5** on the spread, a Dutch team total over, and a **Depay or Gakpo anytime**, with Virgil van Dijk the recurring set-piece scorer's price the Dutch generate from corners. The model keeps a Dutch clean sheet more often than not. Live board for [Netherlands vs. Tunisia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/netherlands-vs-tunisia) ([Group F](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups)). Team pages: [Netherlands](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/netherlands) · [Tunisia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/tunisia). *Model: Netherlands 72% / draw 18% / Tunisia 11% · lean Over 2.5 · Netherlands -1.5 over the moneyline.* ### Japan vs. Sweden — the form-and-quality side the board won't price The best number on the slate, and it's hiding behind the standings. [Japan](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/japan) have been the story of Group F — a 2-2 comeback against the Netherlands and a 4-0 over Tunisia, four points and unbeaten — so the board makes them a clear **53¢** favorite. But this is the one game where the board and the model split hardest. [Sweden](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/sweden) are the more talented roster on the field — Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres, two of the most expensive strikers in Europe — they have six goals across two games, and they have to win to survive. Japan need only a draw to advance and have every incentive to sit deeper and protect it. The model reads Sweden far more live than the board does: Japan **46% (+116)**, the draw **23% (+336)** and **Sweden 31% (+224)** against the board's **22¢** — a near-ten-point gap on the team that has to chase the game. The position is **Sweden**, cleanest as a double chance against a side playing not to lose, with **Gyökeres anytime** the expression of the edge — he's the penalty taker and the hottest finisher in Europe — and Isak the second price. Sweden pushing and Japan absorbing is exactly the script that opens a game up: both-teams-to-score and the Over are the live secondaries. Live board for [Japan vs. Sweden](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/japan-vs-sweden) ([Group F](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups)). Team pages: [Japan](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/japan) · [Sweden](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/sweden). *Model: Japan 46% / draw 23% / Sweden 31% · lean Over 2.5 · Sweden double chance + Gyökeres anytime.* ### Australia vs. Paraguay — the knockout nightcap, and the board over-weights the draw The late one is a straight eliminator: both sides sit on three points, the winner goes through in second behind the USA, and a draw sends [Australia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/australia) through on goal difference — which is exactly why the board has built the draw into the favorite at 43¢. Australia control it: a point advances them, so they will sit on the low-event game they prefer — their Unders have been money all tournament. [Paraguay](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/paraguay) have to win, and that's where the model and the board part. Paraguay are the more technical roster — Miguel Almirón does everything, Antonio Sanabria leads the line — and a side that must chase is the most likely single result, not the draw. The model reads Paraguay **39% (+154)**, the draw **34% (+195)** and Australia **27% (+275)** — Paraguay a step ahead of the board's 34¢ and the draw well off its inflated 43¢. The structural read is **Under 2.5**, the model's strongest total on the slate, with **Paraguay** the value side on the moneyline and an Almirón anytime/assist the scorer's angle. If you'd rather not pick the chaser, the Under is the cleaner expression. Live board for [Australia vs. Paraguay](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/australia-vs-paraguay) ([Group D](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups)). Team pages: [Australia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/australia) · [Paraguay](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/paraguay). *Model: Australia 27% / draw 34% / Paraguay 39% · lean Under 2.5 · Paraguay value + Almirón anytime.* ### Sizing the card Same discipline The 7 Oracles run every slate: the Japan–Sweden number is the one to lead with, so let [Kelly](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/kelly) size the Sweden position ahead of the USA storyline and the chalk goals. Three of these six are dead at the top — the USA, Germany and the Netherlands are through and will rotate — so the favorites' moneylines are a tax; the value in those games is the scorers and the margin, not the price. The other three decide who survives, which means desperation is priced into every one: back the side that has to win — Sweden, Paraguay — or the structure a must-win game produces, like the Australia–Paraguay Under, not the name on the marquee. If you string any of it, the [Combo Builder](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/combo-builder) shows the real combined price before you commit — a Netherlands -1.5 next to a Gyökeres anytime is a very different ticket than the two read apart. Size to the edge, lean to the value. --- *Track the live model and Kalshi reference prices on the [World Cup hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup), the [Sports · World Cup 2026 hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026), the [group standings](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups), and the [odds page](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/odds). Today's headline position lives on [Picks Today](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/picks-today). Model figures are 10,000-run simulation outputs conditioned on results through Matchday 2; market prices move — confirm the live board before taking a position. PredictionMarketsPicks publishes market analysis, not trading advice. Trade responsibly.* --- ## Disclosure PredictionMarketsPicks publishes analysis of CFTC-regulated event contracts. Nothing here is financial advice and every position carries risk. Links to Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, Polymarket in this article are referral links marked "sponsored" — we may be paid if you open an account. It costs you nothing and never changes what the model says.