# World Cup Sunday: Benny's Best Plays for the June 14 Slate *By Benny Ricciardi, FSWA Award Winner · Published Author · Ran 4Deep Sports · Led FTN Marketing · Traded Bonds on Wall Street — The 7 Oracles at PredictionMarketsPicks* Five games, five positions. Sunday's board overprices favorites in three coin-flips — Turkey, Sweden, Ecuador — and that's where the value sits. Benny's full card. - Source: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/world-cup-2026-sunday-june-14-best-plays - Published: 2026-06-13 --- **Three days in, the lesson keeps repeating: the market loves a favorite, and Sunday's board is stacked with them.** Five games on June 14, and in the three that are actually close — [Australia–Turkey](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/australia-vs-turkiye), [Sweden–Tunisia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/tunisia-vs-sweden), [Ivory Coast–Ecuador](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/cote-divoire-vs-ecuador) — the price on the chalk runs ahead of the model. That's the whole card: back the side the room is leaving behind, and take the player props that pay even when the game stays tight. Here's the tournament backdrop, then the five spots. ### How the card graded The day's theme held: **fade the overpriced favorite** went 2-for-2 on the games that have finished. Australia knocked off Turkey **2-0** and Côte d'Ivoire beat Ecuador **1-0** — both the sides the room was leaving behind. The board's chalk, twice, was wrong. | Game | The side read | The position | Result | |---|---|---|---| | Turkey vs. Australia | Fade Turkey (Australia/draw) | Çalhanoğlu anytime | ✅ side (AUS 2-0) · ❌ prop (Turkey blanked) | | Germany vs. Curacao | Buy the goals, not the ML | Germany over 2.5 | ✅ over (Germany 7-1) | | Netherlands vs. Japan | Small Japan fade / BTTS | Gakpo anytime | ✅ BTTS (2-2) · ❌ prop (Gakpo blanked) | | Ivory Coast vs. Ecuador | Ivory Coast value at 28c | Valencia anytime | ✅ side (CIV 1-0) · ❌ prop (Valencia quiet, off 77') | | Sweden vs. Tunisia | Fade Sweden (draw/Tunisia) | Gyökeres anytime | Late game — graded on the [board](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/tunisia-vs-sweden) | The sides and totals carried the slate; the anytime-scorer props were the soft spot — Gakpo and Valencia both started and blanked. Net read: when the model flags a coin-flip priced as a favorite, the cleanest expression is the *side*, not the prop. Live [World Cup 2026 champion odds](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026) — top contenders by market-implied probability. Full board on the [odds page](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/odds). ### The Sunday card | Game (ET) | The position | The value angle | |---|---|---| | **Turkey vs. Australia** · 12:00 AM | Çalhanoğlu anytime | Australia +260 / draw +232 — Turkey overpriced | | **Germany vs. Curacao** · 1:00 PM | Germany over 2.5 | Germany team total / scorer — not the moneyline | | **Netherlands vs. Japan** · 4:00 PM | Gakpo anytime | Both teams to score; small Japan fade | | **Ivory Coast vs. Ecuador** · 7:00 PM | Enner Valencia anytime | Ivory Coast at 28c — the only +EV moneyline side | | **Sweden vs. Tunisia** · 10:00 PM | Gyökeres anytime | Draw +215 / Tunisia +310 — Sweden overpriced | **★ Marquee read:** The [Turkey fade](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/australia-vs-turkiye). The board says 57%, the model says 42% — the widest gap on the slate. Çalhanoğlu anytime is the position; Australia and the draw are the value. [See today's full Pick of the Day card →](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/picks-today) ### Where the market is wrong Before the games, look at the board as a whole. The model's disagreements all point the same direction this Sunday: it's fading the favorites in the close games and handing the value to the other side. Live [model-vs-market mispricings](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026) — where the simulation and the board disagree most. Updates in real time. Turkey at ~57% against a 42% model. Sweden at ~51% against 43.9%. Ecuador at ~40% against 38%. Three favorites, three games inside a coin flip's reach, three prices the model says are too short. When that pattern shows up across a slate, you don't need every leg — you need to be on the right side of the number, repeatedly. ### Turkey vs. Australia — the slate's biggest mispricing This is the one. [Turkey](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/turkiye) walk into Vancouver at midnight ET as a heavy favorite — the board has them near 57% once the margin comes out, and one model out there goes harder still. Our 10k sim has them at **42.0% (+138)**, with [Australia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/australia) at **27.8% (+260)** and the draw at **30.1% (+232)**. That gap isn't about quality — Güler, Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız are the talent edge. It's about price: a single 90-minute match, against Tony Popovic's deep block, is not where you pay 57% for anyone. Over 2.5 sits at just 49.5%. The cleanest way to back the favorite without the inflated number is **Çalhanoğlu anytime** — Turkey's penalty-taker and dead-ball weapon, whose goals come from the fouls a press draws against a low block, not from an open game. And if you side with the model, the value is **Australia (+260) and the draw (+232)** — both longer on the board than they should be. The trade to skip: laying Turkey at 58c. I wrote the [full Australia–Turkey market read here](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/australia-vs-turkiye-world-cup-2026-market-read). Live board for [Turkey vs. Australia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/australia-vs-turkiye) ([Group D](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups)). Team pages: [Turkey](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/turkiye) · [Australia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/australia). ### Germany vs. Curacao — don't lay the price, buy the goals The opposite kind of game. [Germany](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/germany) are around 94c and the model agrees — **93.9%** — against [Curacao](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/curacao), the smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup. There's no edge laying a 94% favorite. The value is in the goals: **Germany over 2.5 sits at 81.8%** on the model, and a side this lopsided spends the night camped in the Curacao half. A **Germany team total** or a **Havertz / Wirtz anytime scorer** is the cleaner expression than the moneyline. One to skip: both teams to score, which the model puts at just 35.2% — the lean is no. Live board for [Germany vs. Curacao](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/germany-vs-curacao) ([Group E](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups)). Team pages: [Germany](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/germany) · [Curacao](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/curacao). ### Netherlands vs. Japan — back the scorer in a game that opens up The tightest read with the market on the slate. The model has [Netherlands](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/netherlands) at **49.1% (+104)**, the draw at **27.8%**, and [Japan](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/japan) at **23.1% (+333)** — and the board is right there with it, so there's no fat moneyline edge. What there is: a game that profiles to open up. Over 2.5 lands at **54.4%** and both teams to score at **57.8%**, with Japan's press inviting transitions against a Dutch side that wants the ball. The position is **Cody Gakpo anytime** — the Netherlands' first-choice wide threat and a reliable scorer in a game they'll spend on the front foot. The small lean for the model crowd: Japan at 26c runs a touch ahead of the model's 23.1%. Live board for [Netherlands vs. Japan](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/netherlands-vs-japan) ([Group F](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups)). Team pages: [Netherlands](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/netherlands) · [Japan](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/japan). ### Ivory Coast vs. Ecuador — a coin flip priced like there's a favorite [Ecuador](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/ecuador) are the market's pick — the heaviest-volume side at 41c — but the model has it as a near three-way: **Ivory Coast 30.2% (+231), draw 31.8% (+214), Ecuador 38.0% (+163)**. Nobody clears 40%. The only +EV moneyline side is **[Ivory Coast](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/cote-divoire) at 28c** (model 30.2% vs a de-vigged ~27%), with the AFCON champions' physical low block underpriced against an Ecuador back line starting two late-arriving center-backs. The position is **Enner Valencia anytime** — PK-taker, aerial target, and hot off the qualifier winner over Argentina, a goal that survives the under (Over 2.5 just 44.6%). Skip laying Ecuador at 41c. Full breakdown in the [Ivory Coast–Ecuador market read](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/ivory-coast-vs-ecuador-world-cup-2026-market-read). Live board for [Ivory Coast vs. Ecuador](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/cote-divoire-vs-ecuador) ([Group E](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups)). Team pages: [Ivory Coast](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/cote-divoire) · [Ecuador](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/ecuador). ### Sweden vs. Tunisia — fade the favorite, take the striker The nightcap is another favorite the model won't pay. The board makes [Sweden](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/sweden) a **51%** side; the sim has them at **43.9% (+128)**, with the draw at **31.7% (+215)** and [Tunisia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/tunisia) at **24.4% (+310)**. Tunisia are organized and the goals lean under (Over 2.5 at 42.5%), which is exactly the profile that turns a favorite's price into a trap. The value is the **draw (+215)** and **Tunisia (+310)**, not laying Sweden at 52c. The position stays **Viktor Gyökeres anytime** — Sweden's focal striker and the one player who pays even if the result goes against the chalk. Live board for [Sweden vs. Tunisia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/tunisia-vs-sweden) ([Group F](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups)). Team pages: [Sweden](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/sweden) · [Tunisia](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/tunisia). ### Sizing the card Five positions, two shapes: player props that survive a tight game (Çalhanoğlu, Gakpo, Valencia, Gyökeres, plus the Germany goals angle), and value on the sides the market is leaving behind (Australia and the draw, Tunisia and the draw, Ivory Coast). Don't flat-stake them. Run each through the [Kelly tool](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/kelly) so the stake follows the edge — the Australia number and the Ivory Coast number are bigger edges than the tight Netherlands read, and the stakes should say so. Stringing legs into one ticket? The [Combo Builder](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/combo-builder) shows the real combined price before you commit. The card stays green when the math is right, not when every leg is. Size to the edge, lean to the value, and let Sunday come to you. --- *Track the live model and Kalshi reference prices on the [World Cup hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup), the [Sports · World Cup 2026 hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026), the [group standings](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups), and the [odds page](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/odds). Today's headline position lives on [Picks Today](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/picks-today). PredictionMarketsPicks publishes market analysis, not trading advice. Trade responsibly.* --- ## Disclosure PredictionMarketsPicks publishes analysis of CFTC-regulated event contracts. Nothing here is financial advice and every position carries risk. Links to Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, Polymarket in this article are referral links marked "sponsored" — we may be paid if you open an account. It costs you nothing and never changes what the model says.