# World Cup Saturday: Benny's Best Plays for the June 13 Slate *By Benny Ricciardi, FSWA Award Winner · Published Author · Ran 4Deep Sports · Led FTN Marketing · Traded Bonds on Wall Street — The 7 Oracles at PredictionMarketsPicks* Three games, three positions. Embolo to score against Qatar, both teams to score in Brazil–Morocco, and the under in a Scotland–Haiti grind. Benny's card for the heaviest day of the group stage. - Source: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/world-cup-2026-saturday-june-13-best-plays - Published: 2026-06-13 --- **Two days in, the card is green.** Not because everything's been right — the record sits at a flat **3-3** — but because the right ones paid. When you take a position on a live underdog at a plus price and it lands, a .500 week still runs **+8 units**. That's the whole game: it's not how often, it's how much. Saturday is the heaviest slate of the group stage, and there are three spots where the market is pricing the favorite and missing the angle. Here's the board, and where I'm pointed. **★ Pick of the Day:** Both teams to score — [Brazil vs. Morocco](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/brazil-vs-morocco). Two attacking sides, two banged-up back lines, a coin-flip-plus favorite that opens up. It's the cleanest position on the board. [See the full Pick of the Day card →](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/picks-today) ### The Saturday card | Match | Model | The play | |---|---|---| | [Qatar vs. Switzerland](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/qatar-vs-switzerland) | SUI 63% · Draw 25% · QAT 12% | **Breel Embolo — anytime goal** (sprinkle: first goal) | | [Brazil vs. Morocco](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/brazil-vs-morocco) | BRA 54% · Draw 27% · MAR 19% | ★ **Both teams to score** — *Pick of the Day* (lean: Morocco draw-no-bet) | | [Scotland vs. Haiti](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/scotland-vs-haiti) | SCO 54% · Draw 28% · HAI 18% | **Under 2.5 goals** | The live World Cup market board — every Saturday fixture, model win/draw/loss splits, and Kalshi reference prices, updating in real time. Full slate on the [Sports · World Cup 2026 hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026). ### Qatar vs. Switzerland — back the striker, not the price The market makes [Switzerland](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/switzerland) a heavy favorite — 63% on our model, and the Opta supercomputer goes even harder at 76%. That's the problem with the match line: there's no price left in it. The value isn't *that* Switzerland win; it's *how* they win. A 63%-to-76% favorite spends the night camped in Qatar's half, working a deep, aging block, taking the lion's share of the chances. When one team owns the ball and the territory for 90 minutes, their center forward gets volume. That center forward is **Breel Embolo**. He's the Swiss first-choice striker, he led the qualifying group with **six goals**, and he's exactly the pace-and-power profile that wears down a Qatar back line built around four players who are 33 or older. **Embolo to score anytime** is the position — you're buying the most likely scorer in a game one team is going to dominate, at a number far friendlier than laying the favorite. The **sprinkle** is Embolo for the **first goal** — a small-stake lotto. Same logic, longer price: if the Swiss break the block early, it's probably him. Keep it light; first-scorer is variance by design. Live board for [Qatar vs. Switzerland](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/qatar-vs-switzerland). Team pages: [Switzerland](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/switzerland) · [Qatar](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/qatar). ### Brazil vs. Morocco — the goal at the other end, and a dog being disrespected I wrote the [long read on this one](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/brazil-vs-morocco-world-cup-2026-market-read) — the short version is that the headline position is **both teams to score**, and the quiet one is that Morocco are being disrespected at 19%. [Brazil](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/brazil) are favored, and they should be. But this is not Brazil's best or fittest team. The fitness is a question, the team-news board is busy, and a front-foot setup under Ancelotti leaves the back door open. [Morocco](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/morocco), meanwhile, bring the spine that reached a World Cup semifinal, an AFCON 2025 final on home soil just five months ago, and a perfect qualifying campaign — and, man for man, arguably the deeper, more cohesive supporting cast for a tournament run *this time*. The 54%-to-19% split says blowout-adjacent. The film says a one-goal game. Those are not the same thing. **Both teams to score** is where that lands cleanly: Brazil are too good to be shut out, Morocco have the counter and the set pieces to find one at the other end, and two banged-up defenses point the night toward goals on both sides. It prices around 55% and reads sharper than backing a coin-flip-plus favorite. The **lean for the brave** is **Morocco draw-no-bet** — a position, not the play. If you think, like I do, that this is far closer than the price, draw-no-bet gives you Morocco with the draw refunded. You don't need them to win outright; you need this to be the one-goal game the market refuses to admit it is. ★ Pick of the Day. Live board for [Brazil vs. Morocco](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/brazil-vs-morocco) — full card on [Picks Today](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/picks-today). Team pages: [Brazil](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/brazil) · [Morocco](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/morocco). ### Scotland vs. Haiti — don't chase the drama, take the under The last leg is the opposite kind of game. [Scotland](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/scotland) are the 54% favorite, but they're a controlled, methodical side, not a free-scoring one — and [Haiti](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/haiti) are dogs whose entire identity is defensive structure and toughness. Haiti came through CONCACAF qualifying without playing a single home game; you don't survive that without organization and bite. Now layer in the table. Brazil and Morocco are going to take the top two in [Group C](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups), which makes this a fight for a third-place lifeline — and teams chasing a third-place berth do not trade haymakers in their opener. They manage it. A 1-0 either way, a 1-1, a 2-0 — every cautious scoreline keeps **under 2.5 goals** alive. The position is the under, and the appeal is that you don't need a winner: you just need both sides to do the sensible thing and avoid the chaos. Live board for [Scotland vs. Haiti](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/scotland-vs-haiti). Team pages: [Scotland](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/scotland) · [Haiti](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/haiti). ### Sizing the card Three positions, three different shapes: a player prop on a heavy favorite, a goals market on a coin flip, and an under on a grind. Don't flat-stake them blind. Run each through the [Kelly tool](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/kelly) so the stake follows the edge, not the gut — the Embolo prop and the Brazil–Morocco both-teams-to-score number deserve different sizes. And if you're stringing any of these into one ticket, the [Combo Builder](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/combo-builder) shows you the real combined number before you commit. The card is green because the math has been right, not because every leg has. Stay disciplined, size to the edge, and let Saturday come to you. --- *Track the live model and Kalshi reference prices on the [World Cup hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup), the [Sports · World Cup 2026 hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026), the [Group C standings](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/groups), and the [fan page](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/fan). Today's headline position lives on [Picks Today](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/picks-today). PredictionMarketsPicks publishes market analysis, not trading advice. Trade responsibly.* --- ## Disclosure PredictionMarketsPicks publishes analysis of CFTC-regulated event contracts. Nothing here is financial advice and every position carries risk. Links to Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, Polymarket in this article are referral links marked "sponsored" — we may be paid if you open an account. It costs you nothing and never changes what the model says.