# World Cup Saturday: The 7 Oracles' Best Plays for July 11 — Argentina–Switzerland & Norway–England *By Benny Ricciardi, FSWA Award Winner · Published Author · Ran 4Deep Sports · Led FTN Marketing · Traded Bonds on Wall Street — The 7 Oracles at PredictionMarketsPicks* A quarterfinal doubleheader: Argentina grind Switzerland in Kansas City while Haaland's Norway — fresh off knocking out Brazil — meet an England side the model still makes the clear favorite in Miami. Two reads, one Play of the Day. The July 11 quarterfinal card from The 7 Oracles at PredictionMarketsPicks. - Source: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/world-cup-2026-saturday-july-11-best-plays - Published: 2026-07-08 - Updated: 2026-07-08 --- **The quarterfinals give you a doubleheader on Saturday — a grind in Kansas City and the tournament's best upset story in Miami.** [Argentina](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/argentina) meet [Switzerland](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/switzerland) at Arrowhead, then [Norway](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/norway) — [Erling Haaland](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/norway) fresh off putting Brazil out — take on an [England](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/england) side the model still makes the clear favorite at Hard Rock. Two games, two different scripts, one Play of the Day across the card. Live [World Cup 2026 champion odds](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026) — top contenders by market-implied probability. Full bracket on the [knockout hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/bracket). ### Argentina vs. Switzerland (Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City) **The grind game — favorite plus the under.** The model has [Argentina](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/argentina) at 54.2% to win in 90, the draw at 28.7% and [Switzerland](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/switzerland) at 17.1%, off a 1.64-to-0.85 expected-goals edge. That makes fair value on Argentina in regulation right around 54¢: a play when the [live Kalshi line](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/argentina-vs-switzerland) trades under it, a pass when it doesn't. The supporting expression is under 2.5 goals — this is the low-event tie on the card, the closest sibling to Thursday's France-Morocco read. Argentina project to 1.64 expected goals, Switzerland to just 0.85, for 2.49 total — and over 2.5 only prices at 45.3%, so under sits at roughly 54.7%. The scoreline distribution is stacked low: the 1-1 draw (13.6%), 1-0 Argentina (11.6%), 2-0 Argentina (11.2%) and 0-0 (10.4%) are the four likeliest results. Switzerland earned this quarterfinal by strangling Colombia into a goalless draw and winning the shootout; a deep, disciplined block against an Argentina side that controls tempo is exactly the shape that holds a total down. [Lionel Messi](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/argentina) remains the tie-breaker who can settle a tight game in a single moment — but the model's cleaner numbers are the moneyline and the under. ### Norway vs. England (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami) **The marquee — the story team against the model's favorite.** [Norway](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/norway) are the best narrative left in the bracket: Haaland scored twice to knock [Brazil](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/norway) out in the Round of 16, and now Miami gets the two-way heavyweight tie of the card. But the model is unmoved on the favorite — [England](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/world-cup/england) at 59.7% to win in 90, the draw at 24.9% and Norway at 15.3%, off a 1.96-to-0.93 expected-goals edge. Fair value on England in regulation is right around 60¢: a play only where the [live Kalshi line](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/norway-vs-england) offers a discount. The supporting expression here flips to over 2.5 goals. England project to 1.96 expected goals, Norway to 0.93, for 2.89 total — the highest projected total on the card — with over 1.5 up at 80.2%, BTTS at 53.8% and over 2.5 at 55.2%. The scoreline board runs England-heavy and open: the 1-1 draw (11.9%), 0-2 England (10.7%), 1-2 England (9.9%) and 0-1 England (9.1%) lead the way. This is not a game that stays scoreless — both attacks score, and Norway's route to value is the goals, not the upset moneyline. The scorer market is the trap: don't overpay Haaland into England's control. Read his price on the [matchup page](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/norway-vs-england) against Norway's 0.93 team total before you take it. --- **Play of the day: England to win in 90 minutes (fair value ~60¢).** The biggest favorite edge on the card — 59.7% in regulation on a 1.96-to-0.93 expected-goals gap — against a Norway side that is all narrative and, per the model, a 15.3% outright shot despite Haaland's heater. It's a play at a discount and a pass at a premium, so anchor to the [live line](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/norway-vs-england): take England in regulation only where Kalshi is offering below ~60¢. The value stack is [Argentina](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/sports/world-cup-2026/argentina-vs-switzerland) in regulation at ~54¢, the other clean favorite number on the card. Both favorites in regulation form a natural two-leg on the [Combo Edge Builder](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/combo-edge-builder) — they settle on separate games but move together as a chalk card, so price the correlation before you stack. Size everything [quarter-Kelly](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/kelly), and split the supporting totals by game: under 2.5 in the Argentina grind, over 2.5 in the Norway-England shootout-in-waiting. *Model probabilities from PredictionMarketsPicks' World Cup 2026 simulation, refreshed nightly against live results. Not financial advice — trade responsibly.* --- ## Disclosure PredictionMarketsPicks publishes analysis of CFTC-regulated event contracts. Nothing here is financial advice and every position carries risk. Links to Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, Polymarket in this article are referral links marked "sponsored" — we may be paid if you open an account. It costs you nothing and never changes what the model says.