# What 3,806 Polymarket US 5-Minute Bitcoin Windows Show

*By The 7 Oracles, The PredictionMarketsPicks Oracles — The 7 Oracles at PredictionMarketsPicks*

Every Polymarket US 5-minute bitcoin window we logged from Oct. 22 to Nov. 4, 2026: Up settled 49.9% of the time, the longest run was 12, and the median move was 4.5 bps.

- Source: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/polymarket-5-minute-bitcoin-results
- Published: 2026-11-04
- Updated: 2026-11-04

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*Paid partnership with Polymarket. PredictionMarketsPicks is a paid Polymarket partner. This page reports our own record of past results; it is not a recommendation to trade any window.*

Every five minutes, Polymarket US settles one question: did bitcoin finish at or above where the window started? We logged 3,806 of those windows on the [5-Minute Board](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/5-minute-markets), from Oct. 22 through 4:35 p.m. ET on Nov. 4, 2026. Up settled **1,898 times, or 49.9%**.

*Every 5-minute window's result: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/5-minute-markets*

## Up and Down split almost exactly even

| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| Windows settled | 3,806 |
| Finished Up | 1,898 (49.9%) |
| Finished Down | 1,908 (50.1%) |
| Period | Oct. 22 to Nov. 4, 2026 |

With 3,806 windows, the standard error on that rate is about 1.3 percentage points. A 49.9% reading can't be told apart from 50%, so this sample shows no lean in either direction.

## Long runs are what a coin flip produces

| Run | Longest | Started | Runs of 5+ | Runs of 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up | 12 | Oct. 28, 3:45 a.m. ET | 65 | 7 |
| Down | 11 | Oct. 26, 11:40 a.m. ET | 72 | 7 |

A run of 12 feels like it should mean something. It's also about what chance delivers: a fair coin flipped 3,806 times has an expected longest run close to 12. We count a run as consecutive windows only, so a gap in the record breaks it.

## Most windows barely move

| Move in the window | Share of windows |
|---|---|
| 5 bps or less | 54.1% |
| 10 bps or more | 21.7% |
| 25 bps or more | 3.3% |

The median move was **4.5 bps**, and one window in ten moved more than 15.4 bps. At an $80,000 bitcoin, 4.5 bps is about $36. The largest move on record was 104.7 bps. These figures cover the 3,782 windows with a recorded move.

## What this record doesn't tell you

It's 14 days of data, so it covers one stretch of bitcoin volatility and no more. Past windows don't price the next one, and a current run tells you nothing the even split above doesn't. For how the windows settle, see the settlement section on the [5-Minute Board](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/5-minute-markets). For what a round trip costs, see [the fee math](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/polymarket-5-minute-bitcoin-bot-fee-math).

The board updates every window, so the live version of these numbers is always there.

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

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## Disclosure

PredictionMarketsPicks publishes analysis of CFTC-regulated event contracts. Nothing here is financial advice and every position carries risk.

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